Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá.
BACKGROUND:Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c54d64bda61c47a8b1a6db5cd2f7a92f 2023-05-15T15:16:21+02:00 Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. Luis Fernando Chaves José E Calzada Anayansí Valderrama Azael Saldaña 2014-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 https://doaj.org/article/c54d64bda61c47a8b1a6db5cd2f7a92f EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4183471?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 https://doaj.org/article/c54d64bda61c47a8b1a6db5cd2f7a92f PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e3210 (2014) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 2022-12-31T03:53:45Z BACKGROUND:Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS:We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000-2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases. CONCLUSION:Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 10 e3210 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Luis Fernando Chaves José E Calzada Anayansí Valderrama Azael Saldaña Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS:We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000-2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases. CONCLUSION:Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Luis Fernando Chaves José E Calzada Anayansí Valderrama Azael Saldaña |
author_facet |
Luis Fernando Chaves José E Calzada Anayansí Valderrama Azael Saldaña |
author_sort |
Luis Fernando Chaves |
title |
Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
title_short |
Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
title_full |
Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
title_fullStr |
Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
title_sort |
cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 https://doaj.org/article/c54d64bda61c47a8b1a6db5cd2f7a92f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e3210 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4183471?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 https://doaj.org/article/c54d64bda61c47a8b1a6db5cd2f7a92f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
e3210 |
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1766346636366184448 |