Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand.
BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, and potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurs mainly in secondary infections. It recently was hypothesized that, due to the presence of cross-immunity, the relationship between the incidence of DHF and transmission intensit...
Published in: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2008
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 https://doaj.org/article/c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 2023-05-15T15:11:43+02:00 Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. Suwich Thammapalo Yoshiro Nagao Wataru Sakamoto Seeviga Saengtharatip Masaaki Tsujitani Yasuhide Nakamura Paul G Coleman Clive Davies 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 https://doaj.org/article/c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2442222?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 https://doaj.org/article/c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 2, Iss 7, p e263 (2008) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2008 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 2022-12-31T06:26:32Z BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, and potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurs mainly in secondary infections. It recently was hypothesized that, due to the presence of cross-immunity, the relationship between the incidence of DHF and transmission intensity may be negative at areas of intense transmission. We tested this hypothesis empirically, using vector abundance as a surrogate of transmission intensity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: House Index (HI), which is defined as the percentage of households infested with vector larvae/pupae, was obtained from surveys conducted on one million houses in Thailand, between 2002 and 2004. First, the utility of HI as a surrogate of transmission intensity was confirmed because HI was correlated negatively with mean age of DHF in the population. Next, the relationship between DHF incidence and HI was investigated. DHF incidence increased only up to an HI of about 30, but declined thereafter. Reduction of HI from the currently maximal level to 30 would increase the incidence by more than 40%. Simulations, which implemented a recently proposed model for cross-immunity, generated results that resembled actual epidemiological data. It was predicted that cross-immunity generates a wide variation in incidence, thereby obscuring the relationship between incidence and transmission intensity. The relationship would become obvious only if data collected over a long duration (e.g., >10 years) was averaged. CONCLUSION: The negative relationship between DHF incidence and dengue transmission intensity implies that in regions of intense transmission, insufficient reduction of vector abundance may increase long-term DHF incidence. Further studies of a duration much longer than the present study, are warranted. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2 7 e263 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Suwich Thammapalo Yoshiro Nagao Wataru Sakamoto Seeviga Saengtharatip Masaaki Tsujitani Yasuhide Nakamura Paul G Coleman Clive Davies Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, and potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurs mainly in secondary infections. It recently was hypothesized that, due to the presence of cross-immunity, the relationship between the incidence of DHF and transmission intensity may be negative at areas of intense transmission. We tested this hypothesis empirically, using vector abundance as a surrogate of transmission intensity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: House Index (HI), which is defined as the percentage of households infested with vector larvae/pupae, was obtained from surveys conducted on one million houses in Thailand, between 2002 and 2004. First, the utility of HI as a surrogate of transmission intensity was confirmed because HI was correlated negatively with mean age of DHF in the population. Next, the relationship between DHF incidence and HI was investigated. DHF incidence increased only up to an HI of about 30, but declined thereafter. Reduction of HI from the currently maximal level to 30 would increase the incidence by more than 40%. Simulations, which implemented a recently proposed model for cross-immunity, generated results that resembled actual epidemiological data. It was predicted that cross-immunity generates a wide variation in incidence, thereby obscuring the relationship between incidence and transmission intensity. The relationship would become obvious only if data collected over a long duration (e.g., >10 years) was averaged. CONCLUSION: The negative relationship between DHF incidence and dengue transmission intensity implies that in regions of intense transmission, insufficient reduction of vector abundance may increase long-term DHF incidence. Further studies of a duration much longer than the present study, are warranted. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Suwich Thammapalo Yoshiro Nagao Wataru Sakamoto Seeviga Saengtharatip Masaaki Tsujitani Yasuhide Nakamura Paul G Coleman Clive Davies |
author_facet |
Suwich Thammapalo Yoshiro Nagao Wataru Sakamoto Seeviga Saengtharatip Masaaki Tsujitani Yasuhide Nakamura Paul G Coleman Clive Davies |
author_sort |
Suwich Thammapalo |
title |
Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
title_short |
Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
title_full |
Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
title_fullStr |
Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand. |
title_sort |
relationship between transmission intensity and incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in thailand. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 https://doaj.org/article/c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 2, Iss 7, p e263 (2008) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2442222?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 https://doaj.org/article/c4a616c2bf4a4ab995fc649a12b355b9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000263 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e263 |
_version_ |
1766342533663686656 |