Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea
We describe a fecundity-hindcast model that incorporates Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) acute toxicity data, field studies of Arctic cod larval distribution and abundance, natural mortality estimates for Arctic cod eggs and larvae, and an oil spill fate model in Alaska Beaufort Sea. Three orders of m...
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Canadian Science Publishing
2017
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c4275aa2c58f40e68813cce1a7291572 2023-05-15T14:23:41+02:00 Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea Benny J Gallaway Wolfgang J Konkel Brenda L Norcross 2017-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 https://doaj.org/article/c4275aa2c58f40e68813cce1a7291572 EN FR eng fre Canadian Science Publishing https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/as-2016-0056 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/c4275aa2c58f40e68813cce1a7291572 Arctic Science, Vol 3, Iss 4, Pp 716-729 (2017) alaska beaufort sea arctic cod oil spill impacts natural mortality rates ichthyoplankton boreogadus saida Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 2022-12-31T09:01:55Z We describe a fecundity-hindcast model that incorporates Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) acute toxicity data, field studies of Arctic cod larval distribution and abundance, natural mortality estimates for Arctic cod eggs and larvae, and an oil spill fate model in Alaska Beaufort Sea. Three orders of magnitude of spill events (1000, 10 000, and 100 000 tons) were evaluated for both physically and chemically dispersed oil. Using worst-case assumptions in our model, a 100 000 ton spill of crude oil treated with dispersants resulted in 266 million m3 of water that exceeded our acute toxicity threshold, compared to a volume of 71 million m3 for a 100 000 ton spill not treated with dispersants, and resulted in exposure of about 2 million Arctic cod larvae remaining from an initial 87 million eggs. This represents the reproductive output of about 7300 adult females. Adult Arctic cod populations in the Alaska Beaufort number in the tens to hundreds of millions. The results show that even with an order of magnitude variation in exposure, the effect of dispersing a large oil spill on the regional cod population is expected to be insignificant (∼0.7%). The recent hiatus in Arctic oil and gas development affords an opportunity to acquire additional data to further strengthen this conclusion. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic cod Arctic Beaufort Sea Boreogadus saida Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Science |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English French |
topic |
alaska beaufort sea arctic cod oil spill impacts natural mortality rates ichthyoplankton boreogadus saida Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
spellingShingle |
alaska beaufort sea arctic cod oil spill impacts natural mortality rates ichthyoplankton boreogadus saida Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 Benny J Gallaway Wolfgang J Konkel Brenda L Norcross Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
topic_facet |
alaska beaufort sea arctic cod oil spill impacts natural mortality rates ichthyoplankton boreogadus saida Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
description |
We describe a fecundity-hindcast model that incorporates Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) acute toxicity data, field studies of Arctic cod larval distribution and abundance, natural mortality estimates for Arctic cod eggs and larvae, and an oil spill fate model in Alaska Beaufort Sea. Three orders of magnitude of spill events (1000, 10 000, and 100 000 tons) were evaluated for both physically and chemically dispersed oil. Using worst-case assumptions in our model, a 100 000 ton spill of crude oil treated with dispersants resulted in 266 million m3 of water that exceeded our acute toxicity threshold, compared to a volume of 71 million m3 for a 100 000 ton spill not treated with dispersants, and resulted in exposure of about 2 million Arctic cod larvae remaining from an initial 87 million eggs. This represents the reproductive output of about 7300 adult females. Adult Arctic cod populations in the Alaska Beaufort number in the tens to hundreds of millions. The results show that even with an order of magnitude variation in exposure, the effect of dispersing a large oil spill on the regional cod population is expected to be insignificant (∼0.7%). The recent hiatus in Arctic oil and gas development affords an opportunity to acquire additional data to further strengthen this conclusion. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benny J Gallaway Wolfgang J Konkel Brenda L Norcross |
author_facet |
Benny J Gallaway Wolfgang J Konkel Brenda L Norcross |
author_sort |
Benny J Gallaway |
title |
Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
title_short |
Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
title_full |
Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
title_fullStr |
Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Some thoughts on estimating change to Arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea |
title_sort |
some thoughts on estimating change to arctic cod populations from hypothetical oil spills in the eastern alaska beaufort sea |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 https://doaj.org/article/c4275aa2c58f40e68813cce1a7291572 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic cod Arctic Beaufort Sea Boreogadus saida Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic cod Arctic Beaufort Sea Boreogadus saida Alaska |
op_source |
Arctic Science, Vol 3, Iss 4, Pp 716-729 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/as-2016-0056 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/c4275aa2c58f40e68813cce1a7291572 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2016-0056 |
container_title |
Arctic Science |
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1766296174441005056 |