Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.
Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c42196d4f8ef448c9e3b485756d487e1 2023-05-15T15:07:08+02:00 Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. Li-Ping Yang Si-Yuan Liang Xian-Jun Wang Xiu-Jun Li Yan-Ling Wu Wei Ma 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 https://doaj.org/article/c42196d4f8ef448c9e3b485756d487e1 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4288724?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 https://doaj.org/article/c42196d4f8ef448c9e3b485756d487e1 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 1, p e3420 (2015) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 2022-12-31T14:13:26Z Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Daly ENVELOPE(63.761,63.761,-67.513,-67.513) Sarima ENVELOPE(29.040,29.040,69.037,69.037) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9 1 e3420 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Li-Ping Yang Si-Yuan Liang Xian-Jun Wang Xiu-Jun Li Yan-Ling Wu Wei Ma Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li-Ping Yang Si-Yuan Liang Xian-Jun Wang Xiu-Jun Li Yan-Ling Wu Wei Ma |
author_facet |
Li-Ping Yang Si-Yuan Liang Xian-Jun Wang Xiu-Jun Li Yan-Ling Wu Wei Ma |
author_sort |
Li-Ping Yang |
title |
Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
title_short |
Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
title_full |
Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
title_fullStr |
Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. |
title_sort |
burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in laiwu, china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 https://doaj.org/article/c42196d4f8ef448c9e3b485756d487e1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(63.761,63.761,-67.513,-67.513) ENVELOPE(29.040,29.040,69.037,69.037) |
geographic |
Arctic Daly Sarima |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Daly Sarima |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 1, p e3420 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4288724?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 https://doaj.org/article/c42196d4f8ef448c9e3b485756d487e1 |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003420 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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e3420 |
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