The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India.
Background With over a hundred million annual infections and rising morbidity and mortality, Plasmodium vivax malaria remains largely a neglected disease. In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, ar...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c40e4e4d677e4cbb9877bd6c79d2d6f8 2023-05-15T15:12:31+02:00 The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. Manojit Roy Menno J Bouma Edward L Ionides Ramesh C Dhiman Mercedes Pascual 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 https://doaj.org/article/c40e4e4d677e4cbb9877bd6c79d2d6f8 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23326611/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 https://doaj.org/article/c40e4e4d677e4cbb9877bd6c79d2d6f8 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 1, p e1979 (2013) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 2022-12-31T05:44:17Z Background With over a hundred million annual infections and rising morbidity and mortality, Plasmodium vivax malaria remains largely a neglected disease. In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, are poorly understood. Methodology/principal findings To quantify relapse parameters and assess the population-wide consequences of anti-relapse treatment, we formulated a transmission model for P. vivax suitable for parameter inference with a recently developed statistical method based on routine surveillance data. A low-endemic region in NW India, whose strong seasonality demarcates the transmission season, provides an opportunity to apply this modeling approach. Our model gives maximum likelihood estimates of 7.1 months for the mean latency and 31% for the relapse rate, in close agreement with regression estimates and clinical evaluation studies in the area. With a baseline of prevailing treatment practices, the model predicts that an effective anti-relapse treatment of 65% of those infected would result in elimination within a decade, and that periodic mass treatment would dramatically reduce the burden of the disease in a few years. Conclusion/significance The striking dependence of P. vivax on relapses for survival reinforces the urgency to develop more effective anti-relapse treatments to replace Primaquine (PQ), the only available drug for the last fifty years. Our methods can provide alternative and simple means to estimate latency times and relapse frequency using routine epidemiological data, and to evaluate the population-wide impact of relapse treatment in areas similar to our study area. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 7 1 e1979 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Manojit Roy Menno J Bouma Edward L Ionides Ramesh C Dhiman Mercedes Pascual The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background With over a hundred million annual infections and rising morbidity and mortality, Plasmodium vivax malaria remains largely a neglected disease. In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, are poorly understood. Methodology/principal findings To quantify relapse parameters and assess the population-wide consequences of anti-relapse treatment, we formulated a transmission model for P. vivax suitable for parameter inference with a recently developed statistical method based on routine surveillance data. A low-endemic region in NW India, whose strong seasonality demarcates the transmission season, provides an opportunity to apply this modeling approach. Our model gives maximum likelihood estimates of 7.1 months for the mean latency and 31% for the relapse rate, in close agreement with regression estimates and clinical evaluation studies in the area. With a baseline of prevailing treatment practices, the model predicts that an effective anti-relapse treatment of 65% of those infected would result in elimination within a decade, and that periodic mass treatment would dramatically reduce the burden of the disease in a few years. Conclusion/significance The striking dependence of P. vivax on relapses for survival reinforces the urgency to develop more effective anti-relapse treatments to replace Primaquine (PQ), the only available drug for the last fifty years. Our methods can provide alternative and simple means to estimate latency times and relapse frequency using routine epidemiological data, and to evaluate the population-wide impact of relapse treatment in areas similar to our study area. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Manojit Roy Menno J Bouma Edward L Ionides Ramesh C Dhiman Mercedes Pascual |
author_facet |
Manojit Roy Menno J Bouma Edward L Ionides Ramesh C Dhiman Mercedes Pascual |
author_sort |
Manojit Roy |
title |
The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
title_short |
The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
title_full |
The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
title_fullStr |
The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. |
title_sort |
potential elimination of plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from nw india. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 https://doaj.org/article/c40e4e4d677e4cbb9877bd6c79d2d6f8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 1, p e1979 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23326611/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 https://doaj.org/article/c40e4e4d677e4cbb9877bd6c79d2d6f8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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7 |
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1 |
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e1979 |
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1766343190597599232 |