Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates.
Background Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease, which is on the rise in Sri Lanka. Spatiotemporal and risk factor analyses are useful for understanding transmission dynamics, spatial clustering and predicting future disease distribution and trends to facilitate effective infec...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c3a9ecf63df3434caa6956943a34b966 2023-05-15T15:11:36+02:00 Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. Nadira D Karunaweera Sanath Senanayake Samitha Ginige Hermali Silva Nuwani Manamperi Nilakshi Samaranayake Rajika Dewasurendra Panduka Karunanayake Deepa Gamage Nissanka de Silva Upul Senarath Guofa Zhou 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/article/c3a9ecf63df3434caa6956943a34b966 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/article/c3a9ecf63df3434caa6956943a34b966 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 4, p e0009346 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 2022-12-31T11:50:06Z Background Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease, which is on the rise in Sri Lanka. Spatiotemporal and risk factor analyses are useful for understanding transmission dynamics, spatial clustering and predicting future disease distribution and trends to facilitate effective infection control. Methods The nationwide clinically confirmed cutaneous leishmaniasis and climatic data were collected from 2001 to 2019. Hierarchical clustering and spatiotemporal cross-correlation analysis were used to measure the region-wide and local (between neighboring districts) synchrony of transmission. A mixed spatiotemporal regression-autoregression model was built to study the effects of climatic, neighboring-district dispersal, and infection carryover variables on leishmaniasis dynamics and spatial distribution. Same model without climatic variables was used to predict the future distribution and trends of leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka. Results A total of 19,361 clinically confirmed leishmaniasis cases have been reported in Sri Lanka from 2001-2019. There were three phases identified: low-transmission phase (2001-2010), parasite population buildup phase (2011-2017), and outbreak phase (2018-2019). Spatially, the districts were divided into three groups based on similarity in temporal dynamics. The global mean correlation among district incidence dynamics was 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), and the localized mean correlation between neighboring districts was 0.58 (95% CI 0.42-0.73). Risk analysis for the seven districts with the highest incidence rates indicated that precipitation, neighboring-district effect, and infection carryover effect exhibited significant correlation with district-level incidence dynamics. Model-predicted incidence dynamics and case distribution matched well with observed results, except for the outbreak in 2018. The model-predicted 2020 case number is about 5,400 cases, with intensified transmission and expansion of high-transmission area. The predicted case number will be 9115 in 2022 and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 4 e0009346 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Nadira D Karunaweera Sanath Senanayake Samitha Ginige Hermali Silva Nuwani Manamperi Nilakshi Samaranayake Rajika Dewasurendra Panduka Karunanayake Deepa Gamage Nissanka de Silva Upul Senarath Guofa Zhou Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease, which is on the rise in Sri Lanka. Spatiotemporal and risk factor analyses are useful for understanding transmission dynamics, spatial clustering and predicting future disease distribution and trends to facilitate effective infection control. Methods The nationwide clinically confirmed cutaneous leishmaniasis and climatic data were collected from 2001 to 2019. Hierarchical clustering and spatiotemporal cross-correlation analysis were used to measure the region-wide and local (between neighboring districts) synchrony of transmission. A mixed spatiotemporal regression-autoregression model was built to study the effects of climatic, neighboring-district dispersal, and infection carryover variables on leishmaniasis dynamics and spatial distribution. Same model without climatic variables was used to predict the future distribution and trends of leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka. Results A total of 19,361 clinically confirmed leishmaniasis cases have been reported in Sri Lanka from 2001-2019. There were three phases identified: low-transmission phase (2001-2010), parasite population buildup phase (2011-2017), and outbreak phase (2018-2019). Spatially, the districts were divided into three groups based on similarity in temporal dynamics. The global mean correlation among district incidence dynamics was 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), and the localized mean correlation between neighboring districts was 0.58 (95% CI 0.42-0.73). Risk analysis for the seven districts with the highest incidence rates indicated that precipitation, neighboring-district effect, and infection carryover effect exhibited significant correlation with district-level incidence dynamics. Model-predicted incidence dynamics and case distribution matched well with observed results, except for the outbreak in 2018. The model-predicted 2020 case number is about 5,400 cases, with intensified transmission and expansion of high-transmission area. The predicted case number will be 9115 in 2022 and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nadira D Karunaweera Sanath Senanayake Samitha Ginige Hermali Silva Nuwani Manamperi Nilakshi Samaranayake Rajika Dewasurendra Panduka Karunanayake Deepa Gamage Nissanka de Silva Upul Senarath Guofa Zhou |
author_facet |
Nadira D Karunaweera Sanath Senanayake Samitha Ginige Hermali Silva Nuwani Manamperi Nilakshi Samaranayake Rajika Dewasurendra Panduka Karunanayake Deepa Gamage Nissanka de Silva Upul Senarath Guofa Zhou |
author_sort |
Nadira D Karunaweera |
title |
Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates. |
title_sort |
spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in sri lanka and future case burden estimates. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/article/c3a9ecf63df3434caa6956943a34b966 |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 4, p e0009346 (2021) |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 https://doaj.org/article/c3a9ecf63df3434caa6956943a34b966 |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009346 |
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