An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the output...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 2023-05-15T13:51:07+02:00 An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 S. J. Phipps J. L. Roberts M. A. King 2021-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5107/2021/gmd-14-5107-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 5107-5124 (2021) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 2022-12-31T07:41:42Z Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Geoscientific Model Development 14 8 5107 5124 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 S. J. Phipps J. L. Roberts M. A. King An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Physical processes within geoscientific models are sometimes described by simplified schemes known as parameterisations. The values of the parameters within these schemes can be poorly constrained by theory or observation. Uncertainty in the parameter values translates into uncertainty in the outputs of the models. Proper quantification of the uncertainty in model predictions therefore requires a systematic approach for sampling parameter space. In this study, we develop a simple and efficient approach to identify regions of multi-dimensional parameter space that are consistent with observations. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the present-day state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we find that co-dependencies between parameters preclude any simple identification of a single optimal set of parameter values. Approaches such as large ensemble modelling are therefore required in order to generate model predictions that incorporate proper quantification of the uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of physical processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. J. Phipps J. L. Roberts M. A. King |
author_facet |
S. J. Phipps J. L. Roberts M. A. King |
author_sort |
S. J. Phipps |
title |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_short |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_fullStr |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
An iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3 |
title_sort |
iterative process for efficient optimisation of parameters in geoscientific models: a demonstration using the parallel ice sheet model (pism) version 0.7.3 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 5107-5124 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5107/2021/gmd-14-5107-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/c334ecbefe07407a8dbf3e53df544e40 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5107-2021 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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14 |
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8 |
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5107 |
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5124 |
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