Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project ice sheet contribution to future sea level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately and t...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 2023-05-15T13:43:33+02:00 Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden T. C. Bartholomaus D. J. Brinkerhoff M. Truffer 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021/tc-15-5705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5705-5715 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 2022-12-31T04:26:06Z Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project ice sheet contribution to future sea level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately and that they appear much too confident in the spread of predicted outcomes. The inability of models to reproduce historical observations raises concerns about the models' skill at projecting mass loss. Here we suggest that uncertainties in the future sea level contribution from Greenland and Antarctica may well be significantly higher than reported in that study. We propose a roadmap to enable a more realistic accounting of uncertainties associated with such forecasts and a formal process by which observations of mass change should be used to refine projections of mass change. Finally, we note that tremendous government investment and planning affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people is founded on the work of just a few tens of scientists. To achieve the goal of credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, we strongly believe that investment in research must be commensurate with the scale of the challenge. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 15 12 5705 5715 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. Aschwanden T. C. Bartholomaus D. J. Brinkerhoff M. Truffer Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project ice sheet contribution to future sea level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately and that they appear much too confident in the spread of predicted outcomes. The inability of models to reproduce historical observations raises concerns about the models' skill at projecting mass loss. Here we suggest that uncertainties in the future sea level contribution from Greenland and Antarctica may well be significantly higher than reported in that study. We propose a roadmap to enable a more realistic accounting of uncertainties associated with such forecasts and a formal process by which observations of mass change should be used to refine projections of mass change. Finally, we note that tremendous government investment and planning affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people is founded on the work of just a few tens of scientists. To achieve the goal of credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, we strongly believe that investment in research must be commensurate with the scale of the challenge. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Aschwanden T. C. Bartholomaus D. J. Brinkerhoff M. Truffer |
author_facet |
A. Aschwanden T. C. Bartholomaus D. J. Brinkerhoff M. Truffer |
author_sort |
A. Aschwanden |
title |
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
title_short |
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
title_full |
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
title_fullStr |
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
title_sort |
brief communication: a roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 https://doaj.org/article/c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 5705-5715 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/5705/2021/tc-15-5705-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/c2b13243579943e388160fc156940c02 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5705 |
op_container_end_page |
5715 |
_version_ |
1766190526183243776 |