Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model syst...
Published in: | Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Stockholm University Press
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/article/c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 2023-05-15T14:55:50+02:00 Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter Teresa Valkonen Patrick Stoll Yurii Batrak Morten Køltzow Thea Maria Schneider Emmy E. Stigter Ola B. Aashamar Eivind Støylen Marius O. Jonassen 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/article/c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 EN eng Stockholm University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/article/c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 72, Iss 1, Pp 1-21 (2020) numerical weather prediction atmospheric boundary layer cold-air pool valley channelling svalbard Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 2022-12-30T21:44:31Z Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The sub-kilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 72 1 1 21 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
numerical weather prediction atmospheric boundary layer cold-air pool valley channelling svalbard Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
numerical weather prediction atmospheric boundary layer cold-air pool valley channelling svalbard Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Teresa Valkonen Patrick Stoll Yurii Batrak Morten Køltzow Thea Maria Schneider Emmy E. Stigter Ola B. Aashamar Eivind Støylen Marius O. Jonassen Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
topic_facet |
numerical weather prediction atmospheric boundary layer cold-air pool valley channelling svalbard Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The sub-kilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Teresa Valkonen Patrick Stoll Yurii Batrak Morten Køltzow Thea Maria Schneider Emmy E. Stigter Ola B. Aashamar Eivind Støylen Marius O. Jonassen |
author_facet |
Teresa Valkonen Patrick Stoll Yurii Batrak Morten Køltzow Thea Maria Schneider Emmy E. Stigter Ola B. Aashamar Eivind Støylen Marius O. Jonassen |
author_sort |
Teresa Valkonen |
title |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_short |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_sort |
evaluation of a sub-kilometre nwp system in an arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
publisher |
Stockholm University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/article/c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
genre |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
op_source |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 72, Iss 1, Pp 1-21 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 https://doaj.org/article/c2428b7dae914896a8954706f858bf41 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
21 |
_version_ |
1766327834961248256 |