A modelling approach to inform regional cumulative effects assessment in northern Ontario

• Published in: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• Main Authors: Effah Kwabena Antwi, Rob S. Rempel, Matthew Carlson, John Boakye-Danquah, Richard Winder, Anna Dabros, Wiafe Owusu-Banahene, Eleanor Berryman, Ian Eddy
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
• Subjects: cumulative effects management; moose-wolf-caribou system; northern Ontario; regional assessment; risk analysis; scenario analysis; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Alces alces; Canis lupus; Rangifer tarandus
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1217195; https://doaj.org/article/c20dab8e8da641ad83d2ca465e4db578

Cumulatively, the effects of resource extraction and climate change have the potential to cause an unprecedented change to the ecosystems and livelihoods of Indigenous communities in Canada’s northern regions. Maintaining environmental and community values in the presence of such change will require a comprehensive understanding of potential long-term risks and opportunities to prevent or mitigate risks at the regional level. However, assessing the cumulative impact and benefits of the multiple disturbances at the regional level is complex due to the interaction of numerous drivers, values, actors, assessment scales, planning, and decision-making processes. We develop an integrated risk and cumulative effects (CE) management methodology to inform regional assessment by combining conceptual modelling through bowtie analysis and quantitative scenario analysis using ALCES Online (AO) simulation. We applied the framework using a case example in the Ring of Fire region of northern Ontario, Canada, to assess the CE of climate change, land use change, and wildlife harvest on the moose (Alces alces)-wolf (Canis lupus)-caribou (Rangifer tarandus) prey-predator system. The bowtie risk analysis provided a mechanism to define the management problem by identifying threats that contribute to risk, associated consequences, and specific management strategies that could be pursued under legislative frameworks and changes to maintain the sustainable dynamics of the moose-wolf-caribou system (MWC). The AO simulation of different levels of development and moose harvest, as well a baseline scenario that excluded climate change and development, allowed for a comprehensive examination of the complex processes driving the social-ecological system. The scenario analysis suggests that moose harvest can promote balance in the MWC system but only if applied in a sophisticated manner that limits moose harvest in areas with high road density, increases moose harvest in more remote regions susceptible to moose population expansion with ...