NATO in the Arctic: incentives and impediments

• Published in: Scientific and Analytical Herald of IE RAS
• Main Author: Dmitry A. Danilov
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Institute of Europe Russian Academy of Sciences 2024
• Subjects: arctic; high north; security dilemma; nato; finland; sweden; usa; nordefco; ukrainian conflict; russia; deterrence; defence planning; baltic-scandinavian macroregion; International relations; JZ2-6530; Arctic; Arctic Council
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.15211/vestnikieran52024717; https://doaj.org/article/c19e2d76be564101b7d8f45e0ec02083

The escalating geopolitical confrontation between the Euro-Atlantic and Russia fundamentally determines the Arctic agenda. The security dilemma in the Arctic, which was previously considered in the paradigm of the common interest of non-militarization and cooperation, is becoming rather more acute. The changing approaches of Arctic actors to defining security policy are changing dramatically, primarily in all countries that have formed the Arctic Council (AC), especially after Finland and Sweden joining in NATO. Russia is faced not only with Western Arctic players’ attempts to push it away from planning and implementing a multilateral Arctic policy, but also with growing risks of violating the existing strategic stability and balances in the Northern Arctic area. The article examines the dilemmas of NATO’s activation in the High North. It is shown that the factors that hampered the framing by the alliance of a collective Arctic strategy retain their significant impact. However, the motivation for NATO’s activation there is noticeably increasing, and the NATO/Arctic discourse is becoming increasingly substantive. The U.S. is strengthening military cooperation with its northern allies, including the new ones, on a bilateral basis, but keeps open a window of opportunity to strengthen NATO as an organization in the Arctic.