Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions
The present paper seeks to provide possible scenarios for future oil prices up to the horizon of 1410 by identifying key global effective factors on a global scale. The data of this paper include 68 factors that are obtained by combining Elite interview and Delphi method. In two stages, the main fac...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c11674edef194c16bd97adf4b4ca1a07 2023-05-15T15:45:13+02:00 Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions Farhad Rahbar Amirali Saifoddin-e Asl Mohammadali shahhoseini Eesa Niazi 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/c11674edef194c16bd97adf4b4ca1a07 FA per Defence Industries Training and Research Institute https://www.behboodmodiriat.ir/article_59804_74433bad0d8c2ba7316a3cddac6896d1.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2251-8991 https://doaj.org/toc/2783-090X 2251-8991 2783-090X https://doaj.org/article/c11674edef194c16bd97adf4b4ca1a07 بهبود مدیریت, Vol 11, Iss 4, Pp 93-135 (2018) scenario analysis cross-impact analysis scenario software Management. Industrial management HD28-70 article 2018 ftdoajarticles 2023-03-12T01:33:03Z The present paper seeks to provide possible scenarios for future oil prices up to the horizon of 1410 by identifying key global effective factors on a global scale. The data of this paper include 68 factors that are obtained by combining Elite interview and Delphi method. In two stages, the main factors are identified, refined or combined. Finally, 40 factors and main trends were identified and collected through questionnaires, their interactions, and analyzed using the microarray software. Finally, six factors are identified as key events and impacts that have the most impact on future crude oil prices. Finally, 24 possible states were defined for 6 factors. Due to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (24*24), the scenario planner, 3375 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the analysis questionnaire and 11 strong or probable scenarios, 29 scenarios with high adaptability (incredible scenarios) and 39 scenarios Poor (possible scenarios) reported. Which was finally descriptively named after the certification and validation by Chaosanario's experts with titles, the Blue Whale, the Ellenino Storm, the Al-Dawraudo Land, and the legendary Three Brothers. Article in Journal/Newspaper Blue whale Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Three Brothers ENVELOPE(-36.803,-36.803,-54.290,-54.290) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
Persian |
topic |
scenario analysis cross-impact analysis scenario software Management. Industrial management HD28-70 |
spellingShingle |
scenario analysis cross-impact analysis scenario software Management. Industrial management HD28-70 Farhad Rahbar Amirali Saifoddin-e Asl Mohammadali shahhoseini Eesa Niazi Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
topic_facet |
scenario analysis cross-impact analysis scenario software Management. Industrial management HD28-70 |
description |
The present paper seeks to provide possible scenarios for future oil prices up to the horizon of 1410 by identifying key global effective factors on a global scale. The data of this paper include 68 factors that are obtained by combining Elite interview and Delphi method. In two stages, the main factors are identified, refined or combined. Finally, 40 factors and main trends were identified and collected through questionnaires, their interactions, and analyzed using the microarray software. Finally, six factors are identified as key events and impacts that have the most impact on future crude oil prices. Finally, 24 possible states were defined for 6 factors. Due to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (24*24), the scenario planner, 3375 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the analysis questionnaire and 11 strong or probable scenarios, 29 scenarios with high adaptability (incredible scenarios) and 39 scenarios Poor (possible scenarios) reported. Which was finally descriptively named after the certification and validation by Chaosanario's experts with titles, the Blue Whale, the Ellenino Storm, the Al-Dawraudo Land, and the legendary Three Brothers. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Farhad Rahbar Amirali Saifoddin-e Asl Mohammadali shahhoseini Eesa Niazi |
author_facet |
Farhad Rahbar Amirali Saifoddin-e Asl Mohammadali shahhoseini Eesa Niazi |
author_sort |
Farhad Rahbar |
title |
Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
title_short |
Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
title_full |
Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
title_fullStr |
Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Crude Oil Price Scenario Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Actors' Interactions |
title_sort |
crude oil price scenario based on identifying key factors and analyzing the actors' interactions |
publisher |
Defence Industries Training and Research Institute |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/c11674edef194c16bd97adf4b4ca1a07 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-36.803,-36.803,-54.290,-54.290) |
geographic |
Three Brothers |
geographic_facet |
Three Brothers |
genre |
Blue whale |
genre_facet |
Blue whale |
op_source |
بهبود مدیریت, Vol 11, Iss 4, Pp 93-135 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.behboodmodiriat.ir/article_59804_74433bad0d8c2ba7316a3cddac6896d1.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2251-8991 https://doaj.org/toc/2783-090X 2251-8991 2783-090X https://doaj.org/article/c11674edef194c16bd97adf4b4ca1a07 |
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1766379552313966592 |