Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution
Abstract Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some...
Published in: | Conservation Science and Practice |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/article/c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 2023-05-15T15:44:57+02:00 Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution Catharine Horswill Julie A. O. Miller Matt J. Wood 2022-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/article/c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/toc/2578-4854 2578-4854 doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/article/c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 Conservation Science and Practice, Vol 4, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) breeding success demography impact assessment kittiwake offshore renewable energy population viability analysis Ecology QH540-549.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 2022-12-31T13:56:35Z Abstract Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity (i.e., temporal variation). However, many species of seabird are experiencing population decline due to temporal (i.e., directional) trends in their vital rates. We assess the prevalence of temporal trends in rates of fecundity for a sentinel species of seabird, the black‐legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, and examine how accounting for these relationships affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected population response to an extrinsic threat. We found that temporal trends in kittiwake rates of fecundity are widespread, and that including these trends in PVA assessments dramatically influences the projected rate of population decline. We advocate that model validation become a prerequisite step in seabird PVA assessments to identify potential biases influencing the projected population response. We also argue that environmental factors driving current population dynamics need to be incorporated in PVA impact assessments as potential “worst‐case” scenarios. These findings have immediate application for improving and reducing uncertainty in impact assessments conducted as part of the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Conservation Science and Practice 4 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
breeding success demography impact assessment kittiwake offshore renewable energy population viability analysis Ecology QH540-549.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
breeding success demography impact assessment kittiwake offshore renewable energy population viability analysis Ecology QH540-549.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Catharine Horswill Julie A. O. Miller Matt J. Wood Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
topic_facet |
breeding success demography impact assessment kittiwake offshore renewable energy population viability analysis Ecology QH540-549.5 General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Abstract Population viability analyses (PVA) are now routinely used during the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments to assess potential impacts to vulnerable species, such as seabirds. These models are typically based on mean vital rates, such as survival and fecundity, with some level of environmental stochasticity (i.e., temporal variation). However, many species of seabird are experiencing population decline due to temporal (i.e., directional) trends in their vital rates. We assess the prevalence of temporal trends in rates of fecundity for a sentinel species of seabird, the black‐legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, and examine how accounting for these relationships affects the predictive accuracy of PVA, as well as the projected population response to an extrinsic threat. We found that temporal trends in kittiwake rates of fecundity are widespread, and that including these trends in PVA assessments dramatically influences the projected rate of population decline. We advocate that model validation become a prerequisite step in seabird PVA assessments to identify potential biases influencing the projected population response. We also argue that environmental factors driving current population dynamics need to be incorporated in PVA impact assessments as potential “worst‐case” scenarios. These findings have immediate application for improving and reducing uncertainty in impact assessments conducted as part of the consenting process for offshore wind energy developments. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Catharine Horswill Julie A. O. Miller Matt J. Wood |
author_facet |
Catharine Horswill Julie A. O. Miller Matt J. Wood |
author_sort |
Catharine Horswill |
title |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_short |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_full |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_fullStr |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
title_sort |
impact assessments of wind farms on seabird populations that overlook existing drivers of demographic change should be treated with caution |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/article/c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 |
genre |
Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla |
genre_facet |
Black-legged Kittiwake rissa tridactyla |
op_source |
Conservation Science and Practice, Vol 4, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/toc/2578-4854 2578-4854 doi:10.1111/csp2.12644 https://doaj.org/article/c02bbfcc07b3474cab1bb28d5fe86738 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12644 |
container_title |
Conservation Science and Practice |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766379316975763456 |