Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century
Abstract We use an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyse the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the historical period 1950–2014 and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bef4d90b105b477d80e8e0202783618b 2023-07-23T04:20:40+02:00 Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century Ramón Fuentes-Franco David Docquier Torben Koenigk Klaus Zimmermann Filippo Giorgi 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 https://doaj.org/article/bef4d90b105b477d80e8e0202783618b EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/bef4d90b105b477d80e8e0202783618b npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 2023-07-02T00:41:02Z Abstract We use an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyse the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the historical period 1950–2014 and two future 21st-century scenarios. Here we find that over Northern Europe, the models project twice more extreme precipitation days by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario compared to the historical period. We also find a weakening of the NAO variability in the second half of the 21st century in the high greenhouse gas emission scenario compared to the historical period, as well as an increasing correlation between extreme winter precipitation events and the NAO index in both future scenarios. Models with a projected decrease in the NAO variability across the 21st century show a positive trend in the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe. These results highlight the role played by NAO in modulating extreme winter precipitation events. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ramón Fuentes-Franco David Docquier Torben Koenigk Klaus Zimmermann Filippo Giorgi Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract We use an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyse the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the historical period 1950–2014 and two future 21st-century scenarios. Here we find that over Northern Europe, the models project twice more extreme precipitation days by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario compared to the historical period. We also find a weakening of the NAO variability in the second half of the 21st century in the high greenhouse gas emission scenario compared to the historical period, as well as an increasing correlation between extreme winter precipitation events and the NAO index in both future scenarios. Models with a projected decrease in the NAO variability across the 21st century show a positive trend in the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe. These results highlight the role played by NAO in modulating extreme winter precipitation events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco David Docquier Torben Koenigk Klaus Zimmermann Filippo Giorgi |
author_facet |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco David Docquier Torben Koenigk Klaus Zimmermann Filippo Giorgi |
author_sort |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco |
title |
Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
winter heavy precipitation events over northern europe modulated by a weaker nao variability by the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 https://doaj.org/article/bef4d90b105b477d80e8e0202783618b |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/bef4d90b105b477d80e8e0202783618b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00396-1 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1772185287507574784 |