Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya
Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche as a data-rich example to investigate the po...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bee2d4854190428784d19488bd546189 2023-05-15T16:37:39+02:00 Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya M. Van Wyk de Vries S. Bhushan M. Jacquemart C. Deschamps-Berger E. Berthier S. Gascoin D. E. Shean D. H. Shugar A. Kääb 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 https://doaj.org/article/bee2d4854190428784d19488bd546189 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3309/2022/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/bee2d4854190428784d19488bd546189 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 3309-3327 (2022) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 2022-12-30T20:20:46Z Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche as a data-rich example to investigate the potential of remotely sensed datasets for the assessment of slope stability. We investigate imagery over the 3 decades preceding collapse and assess the precursory signs exhibited by this slope prior to the catastrophic collapse. We evaluate monthly slope motion from 2015 to 2021 through feature tracking of high-resolution optical satellite imagery. We then combine these data with a time series of pre- and post-event digital elevation models (DEMs), which we use to evaluate elevation change over the same area. Both datasets show that the 26.9 ×10 6 m 3 collapse block moved over 10 m horizontally and vertically in the 5 years preceding collapse, with particularly rapid motion occurring in the summers of 2017 and 2018. We propose that the collapse results from a combination of snow loading in a deep headwall crack and permafrost degradation in the heavily jointed bedrock. Despite observing a clear precursory signal, we find that the timing of the Chamoli rock–ice avalanche could likely not have been forecast from satellite data alone. Our results highlight the potential of remotely sensed imagery for assessing landslide hazard in remote areas, but that challenges remain for operational hazard monitoring. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Indian Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22 10 3309 3327 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Van Wyk de Vries S. Bhushan M. Jacquemart C. Deschamps-Berger E. Berthier S. Gascoin D. E. Shean D. H. Shugar A. Kääb Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
topic_facet |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche as a data-rich example to investigate the potential of remotely sensed datasets for the assessment of slope stability. We investigate imagery over the 3 decades preceding collapse and assess the precursory signs exhibited by this slope prior to the catastrophic collapse. We evaluate monthly slope motion from 2015 to 2021 through feature tracking of high-resolution optical satellite imagery. We then combine these data with a time series of pre- and post-event digital elevation models (DEMs), which we use to evaluate elevation change over the same area. Both datasets show that the 26.9 ×10 6 m 3 collapse block moved over 10 m horizontally and vertically in the 5 years preceding collapse, with particularly rapid motion occurring in the summers of 2017 and 2018. We propose that the collapse results from a combination of snow loading in a deep headwall crack and permafrost degradation in the heavily jointed bedrock. Despite observing a clear precursory signal, we find that the timing of the Chamoli rock–ice avalanche could likely not have been forecast from satellite data alone. Our results highlight the potential of remotely sensed imagery for assessing landslide hazard in remote areas, but that challenges remain for operational hazard monitoring. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Van Wyk de Vries S. Bhushan M. Jacquemart C. Deschamps-Berger E. Berthier S. Gascoin D. E. Shean D. H. Shugar A. Kääb |
author_facet |
M. Van Wyk de Vries S. Bhushan M. Jacquemart C. Deschamps-Berger E. Berthier S. Gascoin D. E. Shean D. H. Shugar A. Kääb |
author_sort |
M. Van Wyk de Vries |
title |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_short |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_full |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_fullStr |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_sort |
pre-collapse motion of the february 2021 chamoli rock–ice avalanche, indian himalaya |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 https://doaj.org/article/bee2d4854190428784d19488bd546189 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 3309-3327 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3309/2022/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/bee2d4854190428784d19488bd546189 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3309 |
op_container_end_page |
3327 |
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1766027944383217664 |