Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data
We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18 O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP)...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2010
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 2023-05-15T16:23:14+02:00 Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data C. Franzke D. Peavoy 2010-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/6/787/2010/cp-6-787-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 787-794 (2010) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2010 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 2022-12-31T08:53:37Z We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18 O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Climate of the Past 6 6 787 794 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 C. Franzke D. Peavoy Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18 O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Franzke D. Peavoy |
author_facet |
C. Franzke D. Peavoy |
author_sort |
C. Franzke |
title |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
title_short |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
title_full |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data |
title_sort |
bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using greenland δ 18 o data |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 787-794 (2010) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/6/787/2010/cp-6-787-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
787 |
op_container_end_page |
794 |
_version_ |
1766011445341847552 |