Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ 18 O data

We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18 O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP)...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate of the Past
Main Authors: C. Franzke, D. Peavoy
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2010
Subjects:
Environmental pollution
TD172-193.5
Environmental protection
TD169-171.8
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Greenland
Greenland ice core
Greenland Ice core Project
Greenland Ice Sheet Project
GRIP
ice core
Ice Sheet
NGRIP
North Greenland
North Greenland Ice Core Project
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010
https://doaj.org/article/be9a62dacc0c404ca1ef91c75f260671
Description
Summary:We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18 O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events.

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