Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical cyclone...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28 2023-05-15T17:35:58+02:00 Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair 2021-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/1111/2021/wcd-2-1111-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28 Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 2, Pp 1111-1130 (2021) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 2022-12-31T13:52:13Z Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical cyclones elsewhere. Our study investigates extratropical cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe (which in this study covers Norway; Sweden; Finland; Estonia; and parts of the Baltic, Norwegian, and Barents seas) by analysing their characteristics, spatial and temporal evolution, and precursors. We examine cold and warm seasons separately to determine seasonal differences. We track all extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, create cyclone composites, and use an ensemble sensitivity method to analyse the precursors. The ensemble sensitivity analysis is a novel method in cyclone studies where linear regression is used to statistically identify what variables possibly influence the subsequent evolution of extratropical cyclones. We investigate windstorm precursors for both the minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and for the maximum 10 m wind gusts. The annual number of extratropical cyclones and windstorms has a large inter-annual variability and no significant linear trends during 1980–2019. Windstorms originate and occur over the Barents and Norwegian seas, whereas weaker extratropical cyclones originate and occur over land areas in northern Europe. During the windstorm evolution, the maximum wind gusts move from the warm sector to behind the cold front following the strongest pressure gradient. Windstorms in both seasons are located on the poleward side of the jet stream. The maximum wind gusts occur nearly at the same time as the minimum MSLP occurs. The cold-season windstorms have higher sensitivities and thus are potentially better predictable than warm-season windstorms, and the minimum MSLP has higher sensitivities than the maximum wind gusts. Of the four examined precursors, both the minimum MSLP and the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Norway Weather and Climate Dynamics 2 4 1111 1130 |
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topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical cyclones elsewhere. Our study investigates extratropical cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe (which in this study covers Norway; Sweden; Finland; Estonia; and parts of the Baltic, Norwegian, and Barents seas) by analysing their characteristics, spatial and temporal evolution, and precursors. We examine cold and warm seasons separately to determine seasonal differences. We track all extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, create cyclone composites, and use an ensemble sensitivity method to analyse the precursors. The ensemble sensitivity analysis is a novel method in cyclone studies where linear regression is used to statistically identify what variables possibly influence the subsequent evolution of extratropical cyclones. We investigate windstorm precursors for both the minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and for the maximum 10 m wind gusts. The annual number of extratropical cyclones and windstorms has a large inter-annual variability and no significant linear trends during 1980–2019. Windstorms originate and occur over the Barents and Norwegian seas, whereas weaker extratropical cyclones originate and occur over land areas in northern Europe. During the windstorm evolution, the maximum wind gusts move from the warm sector to behind the cold front following the strongest pressure gradient. Windstorms in both seasons are located on the poleward side of the jet stream. The maximum wind gusts occur nearly at the same time as the minimum MSLP occurs. The cold-season windstorms have higher sensitivities and thus are potentially better predictable than warm-season windstorms, and the minimum MSLP has higher sensitivities than the maximum wind gusts. Of the four examined precursors, both the minimum MSLP and the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair |
author_facet |
T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair |
author_sort |
T. K. Laurila |
title |
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
title_short |
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
title_full |
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
title_fullStr |
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe |
title_sort |
characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern europe |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 2, Pp 1111-1130 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/1111/2021/wcd-2-1111-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1111 |
op_container_end_page |
1130 |
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1766135293493116928 |