Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia
Abstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of mala...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 2023-05-15T15:11:43+02:00 Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 https://doaj.org/article/be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 EN eng BMC https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 Malaria Journal, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021) Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 2022-12-31T05:13:09Z Abstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Methods Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence. Results Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m. Conclusions Meteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 20 1 |
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Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
topic_facet |
Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Methods Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence. Results Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m. Conclusions Meteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw |
author_facet |
Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw |
author_sort |
Desalegn Dabaro |
title |
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
title_short |
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
title_full |
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
title_fullStr |
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
title_sort |
effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of ethiopia |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 https://doaj.org/article/be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
20 |
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1 |
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1766342534515130368 |