The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming
A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Eu...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bdfd2a5b6fd24cbc8f96b6c9680111f9 2023-05-15T17:36:17+02:00 The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming Giovanni Sgubin Didier Swingedouw Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Nathalie Ollat Cornelis van Leeuwen 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9070397 https://doaj.org/article/bdfd2a5b6fd24cbc8f96b6c9680111f9 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/9/7/397 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4395 2073-4395 doi:10.3390/agronomy9070397 https://doaj.org/article/bdfd2a5b6fd24cbc8f96b6c9680111f9 Agronomy, Vol 9, Iss 7, p 397 (2019) climate change Vitis vinifera L general circulation model EURO-CORDEX phenological model Agriculture S article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9070397 2022-12-31T06:16:10Z A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Agronomy 9 7 397 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Vitis vinifera L general circulation model EURO-CORDEX phenological model Agriculture S |
spellingShingle |
climate change Vitis vinifera L general circulation model EURO-CORDEX phenological model Agriculture S Giovanni Sgubin Didier Swingedouw Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Nathalie Ollat Cornelis van Leeuwen The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
topic_facet |
climate change Vitis vinifera L general circulation model EURO-CORDEX phenological model Agriculture S |
description |
A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Giovanni Sgubin Didier Swingedouw Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Nathalie Ollat Cornelis van Leeuwen |
author_facet |
Giovanni Sgubin Didier Swingedouw Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Nathalie Ollat Cornelis van Leeuwen |
author_sort |
Giovanni Sgubin |
title |
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
title_short |
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
title_full |
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
title_fullStr |
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming |
title_sort |
impact of possible decadal-scale cold waves on viticulture over europe in a context of global warming |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9070397 https://doaj.org/article/bdfd2a5b6fd24cbc8f96b6c9680111f9 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Agronomy, Vol 9, Iss 7, p 397 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/9/7/397 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4395 2073-4395 doi:10.3390/agronomy9070397 https://doaj.org/article/bdfd2a5b6fd24cbc8f96b6c9680111f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9070397 |
container_title |
Agronomy |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
397 |
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1766135728815734784 |