Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica
Antarctica directly impacts the lives of more than half of the world’s population living in the coastal regions. Therefore it is highly desirable to project its climate for the future. But it is a region where the climate models have large inter-modal variability and hence it raises questions about...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bd6eb2c0091244ab97ba217f809255eb 2023-09-05T13:15:20+02:00 Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica Kamal Tewari Saroj K Mishra Popat Salunke Anupam Dewan 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 https://doaj.org/article/bd6eb2c0091244ab97ba217f809255eb EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/bd6eb2c0091244ab97ba217f809255eb Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 1, p 014029 (2022) CMIP6 CMIP5 NEX-GDDP Antarctic precipitation general circulation models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 2023-08-13T00:36:45Z Antarctica directly impacts the lives of more than half of the world’s population living in the coastal regions. Therefore it is highly desirable to project its climate for the future. But it is a region where the climate models have large inter-modal variability and hence it raises questions about the robustness of the projections available. Therefore, we have examined 87 global models from three modelling consortia (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP)), characterized their fidelity, selected a set of ten models (MM10) performing satisfactorily, and used them to make the future projection of precipitation and temperature, and assessed the contribution of precipitation towards sea-levels. For the historical period, the multi-model mean (MMM) of CMIP5 performed slightly better than CMIP6 and was worse for NEX-GDDP, with negligible surface temperature bias of approximately 0.5 °C and a 17.5% and 19% biases in the mean precipitation noted in both CMIP consortia. These biases considerably reduced in MM10, with 21st century projections showing surface warming of approximately 5.1 °C–5.3 °C and precipitation increase approximately 44%–50% against ERA-5 under high-emission scenarios in both CMIP consortia. This projected precipitation increase is much less than that projected using MMM in previous studies with almost the same level of warming, implying approximately 40.0 mm yr ^−1 contribution of precipitation towards sea-level mitigation against approximately 65.0 mm yr ^−1 . Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Environmental Research Letters 17 1 014029 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
CMIP6 CMIP5 NEX-GDDP Antarctic precipitation general circulation models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
CMIP6 CMIP5 NEX-GDDP Antarctic precipitation general circulation models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Kamal Tewari Saroj K Mishra Popat Salunke Anupam Dewan Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
topic_facet |
CMIP6 CMIP5 NEX-GDDP Antarctic precipitation general circulation models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Antarctica directly impacts the lives of more than half of the world’s population living in the coastal regions. Therefore it is highly desirable to project its climate for the future. But it is a region where the climate models have large inter-modal variability and hence it raises questions about the robustness of the projections available. Therefore, we have examined 87 global models from three modelling consortia (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP)), characterized their fidelity, selected a set of ten models (MM10) performing satisfactorily, and used them to make the future projection of precipitation and temperature, and assessed the contribution of precipitation towards sea-levels. For the historical period, the multi-model mean (MMM) of CMIP5 performed slightly better than CMIP6 and was worse for NEX-GDDP, with negligible surface temperature bias of approximately 0.5 °C and a 17.5% and 19% biases in the mean precipitation noted in both CMIP consortia. These biases considerably reduced in MM10, with 21st century projections showing surface warming of approximately 5.1 °C–5.3 °C and precipitation increase approximately 44%–50% against ERA-5 under high-emission scenarios in both CMIP consortia. This projected precipitation increase is much less than that projected using MMM in previous studies with almost the same level of warming, implying approximately 40.0 mm yr ^−1 contribution of precipitation towards sea-level mitigation against approximately 65.0 mm yr ^−1 . |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kamal Tewari Saroj K Mishra Popat Salunke Anupam Dewan |
author_facet |
Kamal Tewari Saroj K Mishra Popat Salunke Anupam Dewan |
author_sort |
Kamal Tewari |
title |
Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
title_short |
Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
title_full |
Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica |
title_sort |
future projections of temperature and precipitation for antarctica |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 https://doaj.org/article/bd6eb2c0091244ab97ba217f809255eb |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 1, p 014029 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/bd6eb2c0091244ab97ba217f809255eb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014029 |
_version_ |
1776197132624068608 |