Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bd2f6a658145491ab65835aa7fef889d 2023-05-15T16:29:38+02:00 Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate Ann Kristin Klose Volker Karle Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F. Donges 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/article/bd2f6a658145491ab65835aa7fef889d EN eng The Royal Society https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/toc/2054-5703 2054-5703 doi:10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/article/bd2f6a658145491ab65835aa7fef889d Royal Society Open Science, Vol 7, Iss 6 (2020) tipping point critical threshold hysteresis tipping cascade earth system eutrophication Science Q article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599 2022-12-31T04:17:28Z In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Royal Society Open Science 7 6 200599 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tipping point critical threshold hysteresis tipping cascade earth system eutrophication Science Q |
spellingShingle |
tipping point critical threshold hysteresis tipping cascade earth system eutrophication Science Q Ann Kristin Klose Volker Karle Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F. Donges Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
topic_facet |
tipping point critical threshold hysteresis tipping cascade earth system eutrophication Science Q |
description |
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ann Kristin Klose Volker Karle Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F. Donges |
author_facet |
Ann Kristin Klose Volker Karle Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F. Donges |
author_sort |
Ann Kristin Klose |
title |
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
title_short |
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
title_full |
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
title_fullStr |
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
title_sort |
emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/article/bd2f6a658145491ab65835aa7fef889d |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Royal Society Open Science, Vol 7, Iss 6 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/toc/2054-5703 2054-5703 doi:10.1098/rsos.200599 https://doaj.org/article/bd2f6a658145491ab65835aa7fef889d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599 |
container_title |
Royal Society Open Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
200599 |
_version_ |
1766019337793044480 |