Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. T...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 2023-05-15T17:08:30+02:00 Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/article/bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 EN eng Hindawi Limited http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/article/bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2011 (2011) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 2022-12-31T15:22:20Z The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5±2°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C. Article in Journal/Newspaper Longyearbyen Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Svalbard Longyearbyen Advances in Meteorology 2011 1 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5±2°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum |
author_facet |
Jan-Erik Solheim Kjell Stordahl Ole Humlum |
author_sort |
Jan-Erik Solheim |
title |
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
title_short |
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
title_full |
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
title_fullStr |
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures |
title_sort |
solar activity and svalbard temperatures |
publisher |
Hindawi Limited |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/article/bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 |
geographic |
Svalbard Longyearbyen |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard Longyearbyen |
genre |
Longyearbyen Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Longyearbyen Svalbard |
op_source |
Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2011 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2011/543146 https://doaj.org/article/bc4a517369a14a2d81b3d564e467bba9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/543146 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2011 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
8 |
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1766064271169421312 |