Sea Ice Extent Prediction with Machine Learning Methods and Subregional Analysis in the Arctic

• Published in: Atmosphere
• Main Authors: Siwen Chen, Kehan Li, Hongpeng Fu, Ying Cheng Wu, Yiyi Huang
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2023
• Subjects: sea ice extent; machine learning; subregional analysis; climate modeling; global warming; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Arctic; Global warming; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061023; https://doaj.org/article/bc1c70773abe4c3c93e8d3cbd094c58c

The decline of sea ice in the Arctic region is a critical indicator of rapid global warming and can also influence the feedback processes in the Arctic, so the prediction of sea ice extent and thickness plays an important role in climate modeling and prediction. This paper uses machine learning methods to predict the sea ice extent, and by adjusting the methods and factors, which include the climate variables, the past sea ice extent, and the simple linear-regression-simulated sea ice extent, then we found the best combination to give the result with the highest R 2 score. We noticed that with longer periods of past sea ice extent data and shorter periods of climate data, the results appeared to be better. This might be related to the difference in climate and ocean memory. The sub-region sea ice extent prediction shows that the regions with whole-year ice cover are easier to predict and that those regions with sudden weather changes and significant seasonal variability appear to have lower R 2 scores in the sea ice extent prediction.