Projected poleward migration of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink region under high emissions

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: Precious Mongwe, Luke Gregor, Jerry Tjiputra, Judith Hauck, Takamitsu Ito, Christopher Danek, Marcello Vichi, Sandy Thomalla, Pedro M. S. Monteiro
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2024
• Subjects: Geology; QE1-996.5; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Antarc*; Antarctic; Sea ice; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01382-y; https://doaj.org/article/bbedeca0aa6e4bf691e2bbdb1886892d

Abstract The Southern Ocean is a major region of ocean carbon uptake, but its future changes remain uncertain under climate change. Here we show the projected shift in the Southern Ocean CO2 sink using a suite of Earth System Models, revealing changes in the mechanism, position and seasonality of the carbon uptake. The region of dominant CO2 uptake shifts from the Subtropical to the Antarctic region under the high-emission scenario. The warming-driven sea-ice melt, increased ocean stratification, mixed layer shoaling, and a weaker vertical carbon gradient is projected to together reduce the winter de-gassing in the future, which will trigger the switch from mixing-driven outgassing to solubility-driven uptake in the Antarctic region during the winter season. The future Southern Ocean carbon sink will be poleward-shifted, operating in a hybrid mode between biologically-driven summertime and solubility-driven wintertime uptake with further amplification of biologically-driven uptake due to the increasing Revelle Factor.