Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application
Abstract We produce projections of global mean sea‐level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effec...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:bb4febef641a499a9e3c334d80fe1213 2024-01-28T10:01:34+01:00 Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application Fiona E. Turner Victor Malagon Santos Tamsin L. Edwards Aimée B.A. Slangen Robert J. Nicholls Gonéri Le Cozannet James O’Neill Mira Adhikari 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/article/bb4febef641a499a9e3c334d80fe1213 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/article/bb4febef641a499a9e3c334d80fe1213 Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 12, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 2023-12-31T01:42:29Z Abstract We produce projections of global mean sea‐level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea‐level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1‐2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2‐4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi‐centennial projections combined into multi‐study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock‐ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea‐level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Earth's Future 11 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Fiona E. Turner Victor Malagon Santos Tamsin L. Edwards Aimée B.A. Slangen Robert J. Nicholls Gonéri Le Cozannet James O’Neill Mira Adhikari Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract We produce projections of global mean sea‐level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea‐level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1‐2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2‐4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi‐centennial projections combined into multi‐study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock‐ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea‐level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fiona E. Turner Victor Malagon Santos Tamsin L. Edwards Aimée B.A. Slangen Robert J. Nicholls Gonéri Le Cozannet James O’Neill Mira Adhikari |
author_facet |
Fiona E. Turner Victor Malagon Santos Tamsin L. Edwards Aimée B.A. Slangen Robert J. Nicholls Gonéri Le Cozannet James O’Neill Mira Adhikari |
author_sort |
Fiona E. Turner |
title |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_short |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_fullStr |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full_unstemmed |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_sort |
illustrative multi‐centennial projections of global mean sea‐level rise and their application |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/article/bb4febef641a499a9e3c334d80fe1213 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 12, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2023EF003550 https://doaj.org/article/bb4febef641a499a9e3c334d80fe1213 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003550 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
_version_ |
1789326635687739392 |