Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak.
The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the fu...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b9289f634d2b48ff964d39b9671ce67b 2023-05-15T15:05:22+02:00 Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. Michel J Counotte Christian L Althaus Nicola Low Julien Riou 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/article/b9289f634d2b48ff964d39b9671ce67b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/article/b9289f634d2b48ff964d39b9671ce67b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 12, p e0007978 (2019) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 2022-12-31T05:52:39Z The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk using data from Managua, Nicaragua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. The imbalance in age-specific immunity implies that people in the 15-29 age range will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak, increasing the expected number of congenital abnormalities. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes. This urgency increases if immunity is not lifelong. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13 12 e0007978 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Michel J Counotte Christian L Althaus Nicola Low Julien Riou Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk using data from Managua, Nicaragua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. The imbalance in age-specific immunity implies that people in the 15-29 age range will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak, increasing the expected number of congenital abnormalities. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes. This urgency increases if immunity is not lifelong. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Michel J Counotte Christian L Althaus Nicola Low Julien Riou |
author_facet |
Michel J Counotte Christian L Althaus Nicola Low Julien Riou |
author_sort |
Michel J Counotte |
title |
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
title_short |
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
title_full |
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
title_fullStr |
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak. |
title_sort |
impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next zika virus outbreak. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/article/b9289f634d2b48ff964d39b9671ce67b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 12, p e0007978 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 https://doaj.org/article/b9289f634d2b48ff964d39b9671ce67b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007978 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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13 |
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12 |
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e0007978 |
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