A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia.
Background Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting deprived populations, and its burden is underestimated in some regions where patients prefer using traditional medicine, case reporting systems are deficient, or health systems are inaccessible to at-risk populations. Thus, th...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b8bac2a1724a4eac97433c723b68e67b 2023-05-15T15:15:08+02:00 A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. Carlos Bravo-Vega Camila Renjifo-Ibañez Mauricio Santos-Vega Leonardo Jose León Nuñez Teddy Angarita-Sierra Juan Manuel Cordovez 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/article/b8bac2a1724a4eac97433c723b68e67b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/article/b8bac2a1724a4eac97433c723b68e67b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e0011117 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 2023-03-05T01:33:15Z Background Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting deprived populations, and its burden is underestimated in some regions where patients prefer using traditional medicine, case reporting systems are deficient, or health systems are inaccessible to at-risk populations. Thus, the development of strategies to optimize disease management is a major challenge. We propose a framework that can be used to estimate total snakebite incidence at a fine political scale. Methodology/principal findings First, we generated fine-scale snakebite risk maps based on the distribution of venomous snakes in Colombia. We then used a generalized mixed-effect model that estimates total snakebite incidence based on risk maps, poverty, and travel time to the nearest medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with snakebite data in Colombia from 2010 to 2019 using the Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm. Our results suggest that 10.19% of total snakebite cases (532.26 yearly envenomings) are not reported and these snakebite victims do not seek medical attention, and that populations in the Orinoco and Amazonian regions are the most at-risk and show the highest percentage of underreporting. We also found that variables such as precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter influences the suitability of environments for venomous snakes rather than absolute temperature or rainfall. Conclusions/significance Our framework permits snakebite underreporting to be estimated using data on snakebite incidence and surveillance, presence locations for the most medically significant venomous snake species, and openly available information on population size, poverty, climate, land cover, roads, and the locations of medical centers. Thus, our algorithm could be used in other countries to estimate total snakebite incidence and improve disease management strategies; however, this framework does not serve as a replacement for a surveillance system, which should be made a priority in countries facing ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17 2 e0011117 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Carlos Bravo-Vega Camila Renjifo-Ibañez Mauricio Santos-Vega Leonardo Jose León Nuñez Teddy Angarita-Sierra Juan Manuel Cordovez A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting deprived populations, and its burden is underestimated in some regions where patients prefer using traditional medicine, case reporting systems are deficient, or health systems are inaccessible to at-risk populations. Thus, the development of strategies to optimize disease management is a major challenge. We propose a framework that can be used to estimate total snakebite incidence at a fine political scale. Methodology/principal findings First, we generated fine-scale snakebite risk maps based on the distribution of venomous snakes in Colombia. We then used a generalized mixed-effect model that estimates total snakebite incidence based on risk maps, poverty, and travel time to the nearest medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with snakebite data in Colombia from 2010 to 2019 using the Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm. Our results suggest that 10.19% of total snakebite cases (532.26 yearly envenomings) are not reported and these snakebite victims do not seek medical attention, and that populations in the Orinoco and Amazonian regions are the most at-risk and show the highest percentage of underreporting. We also found that variables such as precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter influences the suitability of environments for venomous snakes rather than absolute temperature or rainfall. Conclusions/significance Our framework permits snakebite underreporting to be estimated using data on snakebite incidence and surveillance, presence locations for the most medically significant venomous snake species, and openly available information on population size, poverty, climate, land cover, roads, and the locations of medical centers. Thus, our algorithm could be used in other countries to estimate total snakebite incidence and improve disease management strategies; however, this framework does not serve as a replacement for a surveillance system, which should be made a priority in countries facing ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carlos Bravo-Vega Camila Renjifo-Ibañez Mauricio Santos-Vega Leonardo Jose León Nuñez Teddy Angarita-Sierra Juan Manuel Cordovez |
author_facet |
Carlos Bravo-Vega Camila Renjifo-Ibañez Mauricio Santos-Vega Leonardo Jose León Nuñez Teddy Angarita-Sierra Juan Manuel Cordovez |
author_sort |
Carlos Bravo-Vega |
title |
A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
title_short |
A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
title_full |
A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
title_fullStr |
A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia. |
title_sort |
generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: a study in colombia. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/article/b8bac2a1724a4eac97433c723b68e67b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e0011117 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 https://doaj.org/article/b8bac2a1724a4eac97433c723b68e67b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011117 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0011117 |
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1766345517249331200 |