A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission
Abstract Background Malaria transmission models commonly incorporate spatial environmental and climate variability for making regional predictions of disease risk. However, a mismatch of these models' typical spatial resolutions and the characteristic scale of malaria vector population dynamics...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b8939be459374445bee59a362c686d59 2023-05-15T15:11:39+02:00 A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission Duchemin Jean-Bernard Bomblies Arne Eltahir Elfatih AB 2009-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 https://doaj.org/article/b8939be459374445bee59a362c686d59 EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/8/1/223 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/b8939be459374445bee59a362c686d59 Malaria Journal, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 223 (2009) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2009 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 2022-12-31T01:29:45Z Abstract Background Malaria transmission models commonly incorporate spatial environmental and climate variability for making regional predictions of disease risk. However, a mismatch of these models' typical spatial resolutions and the characteristic scale of malaria vector population dynamics may confound disease risk predictions in areas of high spatial hydrological variability such as the Sahel region of Africa. Methods Field observations spanning two years from two Niger villages are compared. The two villages are separated by only 30 km but exhibit a ten-fold difference in anopheles mosquito density. These two villages would be covered by a single grid cell in many malaria models, yet their entomological activity differs greatly. Environmental conditions and associated entomological activity are simulated at high spatial- and temporal resolution using a mechanistic approach that couples a distributed hydrology scheme and an entomological model. Model results are compared to regular field observations of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquito populations and local hydrology. The model resolves the formation and persistence of individual pools that facilitate mosquito breeding and predicts spatio-temporal mosquito population variability at high resolution using an agent-based modeling approach. Results Observations of soil moisture, pool size, and pool persistence are reproduced by the model. The resulting breeding of mosquitoes in the simulated pools yields time-integrated seasonal mosquito population dynamics that closely follow observations from captured mosquito abundance. Interannual difference in mosquito abundance is simulated, and the inter-village difference in mosquito population is reproduced for two years of observations. These modeling results emulate the known focal nature of malaria in Niger Sahel villages. Conclusion Hydrological variability must be represented at high spatial and temporal resolution to achieve accurate predictive ability of malaria risk at the village scale, which can then be ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 8 1 |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Duchemin Jean-Bernard Bomblies Arne Eltahir Elfatih AB A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Malaria transmission models commonly incorporate spatial environmental and climate variability for making regional predictions of disease risk. However, a mismatch of these models' typical spatial resolutions and the characteristic scale of malaria vector population dynamics may confound disease risk predictions in areas of high spatial hydrological variability such as the Sahel region of Africa. Methods Field observations spanning two years from two Niger villages are compared. The two villages are separated by only 30 km but exhibit a ten-fold difference in anopheles mosquito density. These two villages would be covered by a single grid cell in many malaria models, yet their entomological activity differs greatly. Environmental conditions and associated entomological activity are simulated at high spatial- and temporal resolution using a mechanistic approach that couples a distributed hydrology scheme and an entomological model. Model results are compared to regular field observations of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquito populations and local hydrology. The model resolves the formation and persistence of individual pools that facilitate mosquito breeding and predicts spatio-temporal mosquito population variability at high resolution using an agent-based modeling approach. Results Observations of soil moisture, pool size, and pool persistence are reproduced by the model. The resulting breeding of mosquitoes in the simulated pools yields time-integrated seasonal mosquito population dynamics that closely follow observations from captured mosquito abundance. Interannual difference in mosquito abundance is simulated, and the inter-village difference in mosquito population is reproduced for two years of observations. These modeling results emulate the known focal nature of malaria in Niger Sahel villages. Conclusion Hydrological variability must be represented at high spatial and temporal resolution to achieve accurate predictive ability of malaria risk at the village scale, which can then be ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Duchemin Jean-Bernard Bomblies Arne Eltahir Elfatih AB |
author_facet |
Duchemin Jean-Bernard Bomblies Arne Eltahir Elfatih AB |
author_sort |
Duchemin Jean-Bernard |
title |
A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
title_short |
A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
title_full |
A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
title_fullStr |
A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
title_full_unstemmed |
A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
title_sort |
mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village scale malaria transmission |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 https://doaj.org/article/b8939be459374445bee59a362c686d59 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 223 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/8/1/223 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/b8939be459374445bee59a362c686d59 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-223 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766342473616982016 |