Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure
Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using the new CMIP6 models, we investigate changes to seasonal mean storm tracks and composite wind speeds at different levels of the troposphere for the winter and summer seasons in both the Northern Hemisphere...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b885015a85154aa78b191eae3b4cc977 2023-05-15T17:34:57+02:00 Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure M. D. K. Priestley J. L. Catto 2022-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b885015a85154aa78b191eae3b4cc977 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/337/2022/wcd-3-337-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/b885015a85154aa78b191eae3b4cc977 Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 337-360 (2022) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 2022-12-31T08:10:48Z Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using the new CMIP6 models, we investigate changes to seasonal mean storm tracks and composite wind speeds at different levels of the troposphere for the winter and summer seasons in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Changes are assessed across four different climate scenarios. The seasonal mean storm tracks are predicted to shift polewards in the SH and also in the North Pacific, with an extension into Europe for the North Atlantic storm track. Overall, the number of cyclones will decrease by ∼5 % by the end of the 21st century, although the number of extreme cyclones will increase by 4 % in NH winter. Cyclone wind speeds are projected to strengthen throughout the troposphere in the winter seasons and also summer in the SH, with a weakening projected in NH summer, although there are minimal changes in the maximum wind speed in the lower troposphere. Changes in wind speeds are concentrated in the warm sector of cyclones, and the area of extreme winds may be up to 40 % larger by the end of the century. The largest changes are seen for the SSP5-85 scenario, although a large amount of change can be mitigated by restricting warming to that seen in the SSP1-26 and 2-45 scenarios. Extreme cyclones show larger increases in wind speed and peak vorticity than the average-strength cyclones, with the extreme cyclones showing a larger increase in wind speed in the warm sector. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 1 337 360 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 M. D. K. Priestley J. L. Catto Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using the new CMIP6 models, we investigate changes to seasonal mean storm tracks and composite wind speeds at different levels of the troposphere for the winter and summer seasons in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Changes are assessed across four different climate scenarios. The seasonal mean storm tracks are predicted to shift polewards in the SH and also in the North Pacific, with an extension into Europe for the North Atlantic storm track. Overall, the number of cyclones will decrease by ∼5 % by the end of the 21st century, although the number of extreme cyclones will increase by 4 % in NH winter. Cyclone wind speeds are projected to strengthen throughout the troposphere in the winter seasons and also summer in the SH, with a weakening projected in NH summer, although there are minimal changes in the maximum wind speed in the lower troposphere. Changes in wind speeds are concentrated in the warm sector of cyclones, and the area of extreme winds may be up to 40 % larger by the end of the century. The largest changes are seen for the SSP5-85 scenario, although a large amount of change can be mitigated by restricting warming to that seen in the SSP1-26 and 2-45 scenarios. Extreme cyclones show larger increases in wind speed and peak vorticity than the average-strength cyclones, with the extreme cyclones showing a larger increase in wind speed in the warm sector. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. D. K. Priestley J. L. Catto |
author_facet |
M. D. K. Priestley J. L. Catto |
author_sort |
M. D. K. Priestley |
title |
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
title_short |
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
title_full |
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
title_sort |
future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b885015a85154aa78b191eae3b4cc977 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 337-360 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/337/2022/wcd-3-337-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/b885015a85154aa78b191eae3b4cc977 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
337 |
op_container_end_page |
360 |
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