Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change
Abstract Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b861dfd99941403e9a9d039f4981d5a3 2023-05-15T17:58:58+02:00 Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change Floris M. vanBeest Rune Dietz Anders Galatius Line Anker Kyhn Signe Sveegaard Jonas Teilmann 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/article/b861dfd99941403e9a9d039f4981d5a3 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/article/b861dfd99941403e9a9d039f4981d5a3 Ecology and Evolution, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) Baltic Sea climate change inter‐specific range overlap marine mammals MaxEnt species distribution models Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 2022-12-31T00:19:00Z Abstract Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Phoca vitulina Phocoena phocoena Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ecology and Evolution 12 7 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Baltic Sea climate change inter‐specific range overlap marine mammals MaxEnt species distribution models Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Baltic Sea climate change inter‐specific range overlap marine mammals MaxEnt species distribution models Ecology QH540-549.5 Floris M. vanBeest Rune Dietz Anders Galatius Line Anker Kyhn Signe Sveegaard Jonas Teilmann Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
topic_facet |
Baltic Sea climate change inter‐specific range overlap marine mammals MaxEnt species distribution models Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Floris M. vanBeest Rune Dietz Anders Galatius Line Anker Kyhn Signe Sveegaard Jonas Teilmann |
author_facet |
Floris M. vanBeest Rune Dietz Anders Galatius Line Anker Kyhn Signe Sveegaard Jonas Teilmann |
author_sort |
Floris M. vanBeest |
title |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
title_short |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
title_full |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
title_sort |
forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/article/b861dfd99941403e9a9d039f4981d5a3 |
genre |
Phoca vitulina Phocoena phocoena |
genre_facet |
Phoca vitulina Phocoena phocoena |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.9083 https://doaj.org/article/b861dfd99941403e9a9d039f4981d5a3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9083 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1766167698528534528 |