HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function
ABSTRACT: In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two ma...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b82b2fd1bab04bd9b63c7d857e42f3ec 2023-05-15T17:34:11+02:00 HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function Zhan Zhang Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu Samuel Trahan Weiguo Wang 2014-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 https://doaj.org/article/b82b2fd1bab04bd9b63c7d857e42f3ec EN eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218301061 https://doaj.org/toc/2225-6032 2225-6032 doi:10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 https://doaj.org/article/b82b2fd1bab04bd9b63c7d857e42f3ec Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol 3, Iss 3, Pp 145-161 (2014) Physical geography GB3-5030 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 2022-12-31T10:20:41Z ABSTRACT: In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme.Verification for the 2011-2012 North Atlantic hurricane seasons shows that HWRF-EPS outperforms its deterministic versions at all lead times for both track and intensity forecast errors. Statistical characteristics are investigated and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the HWRF-EPS. The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error for track and intensity in the HWRF-EPS indicated that the spread is likely more useful as a predictor of forecast error when it has moderately low values. Rank histogram analysis shows that the HWRF-EPS is well dispersed in both track and intensity forecasts except for the systematic errors inherited from the deterministic version. Further comparison with 2012 hurricane season’s top-flight models shows improved track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF-EPS. Keywords: ensemble forecasting, hurricane/tropical cyclone, track/intensity verification Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical geography GB3-5030 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Physical geography GB3-5030 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Zhan Zhang Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu Samuel Trahan Weiguo Wang HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
topic_facet |
Physical geography GB3-5030 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
ABSTRACT: In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme.Verification for the 2011-2012 North Atlantic hurricane seasons shows that HWRF-EPS outperforms its deterministic versions at all lead times for both track and intensity forecast errors. Statistical characteristics are investigated and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the HWRF-EPS. The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error for track and intensity in the HWRF-EPS indicated that the spread is likely more useful as a predictor of forecast error when it has moderately low values. Rank histogram analysis shows that the HWRF-EPS is well dispersed in both track and intensity forecasts except for the systematic errors inherited from the deterministic version. Further comparison with 2012 hurricane season’s top-flight models shows improved track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF-EPS. Keywords: ensemble forecasting, hurricane/tropical cyclone, track/intensity verification |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhan Zhang Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu Samuel Trahan Weiguo Wang |
author_facet |
Zhan Zhang Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu Samuel Trahan Weiguo Wang |
author_sort |
Zhan Zhang |
title |
HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
title_short |
HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
title_full |
HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
title_fullStr |
HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
title_full_unstemmed |
HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function |
title_sort |
hwrf based ensemble prediction system using perturbations from gefs and stochastic convective trigger function |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 https://doaj.org/article/b82b2fd1bab04bd9b63c7d857e42f3ec |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol 3, Iss 3, Pp 145-161 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218301061 https://doaj.org/toc/2225-6032 2225-6032 doi:10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 https://doaj.org/article/b82b2fd1bab04bd9b63c7d857e42f3ec |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6057/2014TCRR03.02 |
_version_ |
1766132945072947200 |