Response of snowpack to +2°C global warming in Hokkaido, Japan

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Yuta Katsuyama, Masaru Inatsu, Tatsuo Shirakawa
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press 2020
• Subjects: Climate change; snow metamorphosis; snow physics; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.85; https://doaj.org/article/b80a3adbdcdc40eb92335508984b62bc

The response of snowpack to a +2°C global warming relative to the present climate was estimated in Hokkaido, Japan, using a physical snowpack model driven by dynamically downscaled (DDS) data, after model evaluation. The evaluation revealed that the snowpack model successfully reproduced the height of snow cover (HS), snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days (SCDs), but had a moderate bias in the thickness ratios of melt form (MF) and hoar category (HC). The DDS-forced simulation predicted that the seasonal-maximum HS and SWE would decrease by 30–40% in the southwestern and eastern parts of Hokkaido due to a large decrease in snowfall during the accumulation period, and that the HS and SWE in the north would decrease, albeit not significantly due to uncertain atmospheric forcing. The number of SCDs in Hokkaido was predicted to decline by ~30 d. Additionally, ~50% of snowpack thickness during a season would be MF in most areas, whereas HC would be <50% all over Hokkaido.