Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost
Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources’ exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic deve...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 https://doaj.org/article/b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 2023-09-05T13:17:36+02:00 Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost Dmitry A Streletskiy Luis J Suter Nikolay I Shiklomanov Boris N Porfiriev Dmitry O Eliseev 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 https://doaj.org/article/b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 2, p 025003 (2019) permafrost infrastructure economy climate change Russia arctic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 2023-08-13T00:37:31Z Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources’ exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the extent to which infrastructure and housing are affected by permafrost in Russia and estimates the associated value of these assets. An ensemble of climate projections is used as a forcing to a permafrost-geotechnical model, in order to estimate the cost of buildings and infrastructure affected by permafrost degradation by mid-21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. The total value of fixed assets on permafrost was estimated at 248.6 bln USD. Projected climatic changes will affect 20% of structures and 19% of infrastructure assets, costing 16.7 bln USD and 67.7 bln USD respectively to mitigate. The total cost of residential real estate on permafrost was estimated at 52.6 bln USD, with 54% buildings affected by significant permafrost degradation by the mid-21st century. The paper discusses the variability in climate-change projections and the ability of Russia’s administrative regions containing permafrost to cope with projected climate-change impacts. The study can be used in land use planning and to promote the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for addressing the climate-change impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure and housing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 14 2 025003 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost infrastructure economy climate change Russia arctic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost infrastructure economy climate change Russia arctic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Dmitry A Streletskiy Luis J Suter Nikolay I Shiklomanov Boris N Porfiriev Dmitry O Eliseev Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
topic_facet |
permafrost infrastructure economy climate change Russia arctic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources’ exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the extent to which infrastructure and housing are affected by permafrost in Russia and estimates the associated value of these assets. An ensemble of climate projections is used as a forcing to a permafrost-geotechnical model, in order to estimate the cost of buildings and infrastructure affected by permafrost degradation by mid-21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. The total value of fixed assets on permafrost was estimated at 248.6 bln USD. Projected climatic changes will affect 20% of structures and 19% of infrastructure assets, costing 16.7 bln USD and 67.7 bln USD respectively to mitigate. The total cost of residential real estate on permafrost was estimated at 52.6 bln USD, with 54% buildings affected by significant permafrost degradation by the mid-21st century. The paper discusses the variability in climate-change projections and the ability of Russia’s administrative regions containing permafrost to cope with projected climate-change impacts. The study can be used in land use planning and to promote the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for addressing the climate-change impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure and housing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dmitry A Streletskiy Luis J Suter Nikolay I Shiklomanov Boris N Porfiriev Dmitry O Eliseev |
author_facet |
Dmitry A Streletskiy Luis J Suter Nikolay I Shiklomanov Boris N Porfiriev Dmitry O Eliseev |
author_sort |
Dmitry A Streletskiy |
title |
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
title_short |
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
title_full |
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost |
title_sort |
assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the russian regions on permafrost |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 https://doaj.org/article/b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 2, p 025003 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/b70f3a5690b24832b81e8fd66da39e77 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
025003 |
_version_ |
1776198713959514112 |