A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach.
Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as e...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b70eb96e0e3a4be6a812ed2e546367b4 2024-09-09T19:26:22+00:00 A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. Youngsuk Ko Jacob Lee Yubin Seo Eunok Jung 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/article/b70eb96e0e3a4be6a812ed2e546367b4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/article/b70eb96e0e3a4be6a812ed2e546367b4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 18, Iss 6, p e0011955 (2024) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 2024-08-05T17:49:07Z Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18 6 e0011955 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Youngsuk Ko Jacob Lee Yubin Seo Eunok Jung A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Youngsuk Ko Jacob Lee Yubin Seo Eunok Jung |
author_facet |
Youngsuk Ko Jacob Lee Yubin Seo Eunok Jung |
author_sort |
Youngsuk Ko |
title |
A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
title_short |
A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
title_full |
A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
title_fullStr |
A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach. |
title_sort |
comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on ebolavirus disease outbreak: stochastic modeling approach. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/article/b70eb96e0e3a4be6a812ed2e546367b4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 18, Iss 6, p e0011955 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 https://doaj.org/article/b70eb96e0e3a4be6a812ed2e546367b4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011955 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0011955 |
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1809896003219750912 |