Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus.
The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be usefu...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b6c894e28e1049aab300af41f0c0ed14 2023-05-15T15:11:16+02:00 Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. Sebastian Funk Adam J Kucharski Anton Camacho Rosalind M Eggo Laith Yakob Lawrence M Murray W John Edmunds 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/article/b6c894e28e1049aab300af41f0c0ed14 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/article/b6c894e28e1049aab300af41f0c0ed14 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 12, p e0005173 (2016) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 2022-12-31T07:48:33Z The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimated a reproduction number of 8.0-16 (95% Credible Interval (CI)) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8-14 (95% CI) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our estimate was 28-102 (95% CI). We further found that the proportion of cases of Zika reported was smaller (95% CI 1.4%-1.9%) than that of dengue (95% CI: 47%-61%). We confirmed these results in extensive sensitivity analysis. They suggest that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10 12 e0005173 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Sebastian Funk Adam J Kucharski Anton Camacho Rosalind M Eggo Laith Yakob Lawrence M Murray W John Edmunds Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimated a reproduction number of 8.0-16 (95% Credible Interval (CI)) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8-14 (95% CI) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our estimate was 28-102 (95% CI). We further found that the proportion of cases of Zika reported was smaller (95% CI 1.4%-1.9%) than that of dengue (95% CI: 47%-61%). We confirmed these results in extensive sensitivity analysis. They suggest that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sebastian Funk Adam J Kucharski Anton Camacho Rosalind M Eggo Laith Yakob Lawrence M Murray W John Edmunds |
author_facet |
Sebastian Funk Adam J Kucharski Anton Camacho Rosalind M Eggo Laith Yakob Lawrence M Murray W John Edmunds |
author_sort |
Sebastian Funk |
title |
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
title_short |
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
title_full |
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
title_fullStr |
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus. |
title_sort |
comparative analysis of dengue and zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/article/b6c894e28e1049aab300af41f0c0ed14 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 12, p e0005173 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 https://doaj.org/article/b6c894e28e1049aab300af41f0c0ed14 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
e0005173 |
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1766342156050497536 |