Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean...
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2021
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b6c057174a4044c38e3c68a42b0b9c6a 2023-05-15T18:17:59+02:00 Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point J. Lohmann D. Castellana P. D. Ditlevsen H. A. Dijkstra 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 https://doaj.org/article/b6c057174a4044c38e3c68a42b0b9c6a EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/819/2021/esd-12-819-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/b6c057174a4044c38e3c68a42b0b9c6a Earth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 819-835 (2021) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 2022-12-31T15:29:53Z We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 12 3 819 835 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 J. Lohmann D. Castellana P. D. Ditlevsen H. A. Dijkstra Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Lohmann D. Castellana P. D. Ditlevsen H. A. Dijkstra |
author_facet |
J. Lohmann D. Castellana P. D. Ditlevsen H. A. Dijkstra |
author_sort |
J. Lohmann |
title |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_short |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_full |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
title_sort |
abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 https://doaj.org/article/b6c057174a4044c38e3c68a42b0b9c6a |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 819-835 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/819/2021/esd-12-819-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/b6c057174a4044c38e3c68a42b0b9c6a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
819 |
op_container_end_page |
835 |
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1766193837244416000 |