Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates severe thunderstorm activity in the US, with increased activity expected during La Niña conditions. There is also evidence that severe thunderstorm activity is influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), with the positive phase being associated with enhan...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b63a269ba1824cb4952ede9390a7baf9 2023-05-15T14:57:19+02:00 Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation M. K. Tippett C. Lepore M. L. L’Heureux 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b63a269ba1824cb4952ede9390a7baf9 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1063/2022/wcd-3-1063-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/b63a269ba1824cb4952ede9390a7baf9 Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 1063-1075 (2022) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 2022-12-30T19:51:14Z El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates severe thunderstorm activity in the US, with increased activity expected during La Niña conditions. There is also evidence that severe thunderstorm activity is influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), with the positive phase being associated with enhanced activity. The combined ENSO–AO impact is relevant for situations such as in early 2021, when persistent, strong positive and negative AO events occurred during La Niña conditions. Here we examine the relation of a spatially resolved tornado environment index (TEI) with ENSO and the AO in climate model forecasts of February, March, and April conditions over North America. Bivariate composites on Niño 3.4 and AO indices show that TEI predictability is high (strong signals and probability shifts) when the ENSO and AO signals reinforce each other and low when they cancel each other. The largest increase in the expected value and variance of TEI occurs when Niño 3.4 is negative, and the AO is positive. Signal-to-noise ratios are higher during El Niño–negative AO than during La Niña–positive AO, but probability shifts are comparable. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 3 1063 1075 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 M. K. Tippett C. Lepore M. L. L’Heureux Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates severe thunderstorm activity in the US, with increased activity expected during La Niña conditions. There is also evidence that severe thunderstorm activity is influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), with the positive phase being associated with enhanced activity. The combined ENSO–AO impact is relevant for situations such as in early 2021, when persistent, strong positive and negative AO events occurred during La Niña conditions. Here we examine the relation of a spatially resolved tornado environment index (TEI) with ENSO and the AO in climate model forecasts of February, March, and April conditions over North America. Bivariate composites on Niño 3.4 and AO indices show that TEI predictability is high (strong signals and probability shifts) when the ENSO and AO signals reinforce each other and low when they cancel each other. The largest increase in the expected value and variance of TEI occurs when Niño 3.4 is negative, and the AO is positive. Signal-to-noise ratios are higher during El Niño–negative AO than during La Niña–positive AO, but probability shifts are comparable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. K. Tippett C. Lepore M. L. L’Heureux |
author_facet |
M. K. Tippett C. Lepore M. L. L’Heureux |
author_sort |
M. K. Tippett |
title |
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_short |
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_full |
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of a tornado environment index from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation |
title_sort |
predictability of a tornado environment index from el niño–southern oscillation (enso) and the arctic oscillation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b63a269ba1824cb4952ede9390a7baf9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 1063-1075 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1063/2022/wcd-3-1063-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/b63a269ba1824cb4952ede9390a7baf9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1063-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
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3 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1063 |
op_container_end_page |
1075 |
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1766329397601632256 |