Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 2023-05-15T14:00:18+02:00 Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts P. Hitchcock A. Butler A. Charlton-Perez C. I. Garfinkel T. Stockdale J. Anstey D. Mitchell D. I. V. Domeisen T. Wu Y. Lu D. Mastrangelo P. Malguzzi H. Lin R. Muncaster B. Merryfield M. Sigmond B. Xiang L. Jia Y.-K. Hyun J. Oh D. Specq I. R. Simpson J. H. Richter C. Barton J. Knight E.-P. Lim H. Hendon 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 15, Pp 5073-5092 (2022) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 2022-12-30T23:21:57Z Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 15 13 5073 5092 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 P. Hitchcock A. Butler A. Charlton-Perez C. I. Garfinkel T. Stockdale J. Anstey D. Mitchell D. I. V. Domeisen T. Wu Y. Lu D. Mastrangelo P. Malguzzi H. Lin R. Muncaster B. Merryfield M. Sigmond B. Xiang L. Jia Y.-K. Hyun J. Oh D. Specq I. R. Simpson J. H. Richter C. Barton J. Knight E.-P. Lim H. Hendon Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. Hitchcock A. Butler A. Charlton-Perez C. I. Garfinkel T. Stockdale J. Anstey D. Mitchell D. I. V. Domeisen T. Wu Y. Lu D. Mastrangelo P. Malguzzi H. Lin R. Muncaster B. Merryfield M. Sigmond B. Xiang L. Jia Y.-K. Hyun J. Oh D. Specq I. R. Simpson J. H. Richter C. Barton J. Knight E.-P. Lim H. Hendon |
author_facet |
P. Hitchcock A. Butler A. Charlton-Perez C. I. Garfinkel T. Stockdale J. Anstey D. Mitchell D. I. V. Domeisen T. Wu Y. Lu D. Mastrangelo P. Malguzzi H. Lin R. Muncaster B. Merryfield M. Sigmond B. Xiang L. Jia Y.-K. Hyun J. Oh D. Specq I. R. Simpson J. H. Richter C. Barton J. Knight E.-P. Lim H. Hendon |
author_sort |
P. Hitchcock |
title |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
stratospheric nudging and predictable surface impacts (snapsi): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://doaj.org/article/b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 15, Pp 5073-5092 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5073/2022/gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/b5ebaa5dcc3440ee83b37563b352c396 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
5073 |
op_container_end_page |
5092 |
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