Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low...
Published in: | Ocean Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://doaj.org/article/b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 2023-05-15T17:27:12+02:00 Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic D. G. Desbruyères H. Mercier G. Maze N. Daniault 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://doaj.org/article/b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.ocean-sci.net/15/809/2019/os-15-809-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0784 https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0792 doi:10.5194/os-15-809-2019 1812-0784 1812-0792 https://doaj.org/article/b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 Ocean Science, Vol 15, Pp 809-817 (2019) Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 2022-12-31T00:04:23Z The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45 ∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ocean Science 15 3 809 817 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 D. G. Desbruyères H. Mercier G. Maze N. Daniault Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45 ∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. G. Desbruyères H. Mercier G. Maze N. Daniault |
author_facet |
D. G. Desbruyères H. Mercier G. Maze N. Daniault |
author_sort |
D. G. Desbruyères |
title |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_short |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic |
title_sort |
surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar north atlantic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 https://doaj.org/article/b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Ocean Science, Vol 15, Pp 809-817 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.ocean-sci.net/15/809/2019/os-15-809-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0784 https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0792 doi:10.5194/os-15-809-2019 1812-0784 1812-0792 https://doaj.org/article/b53c7a9b65d340d485e21eed2f5486e1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-809-2019 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
809 |
op_container_end_page |
817 |
_version_ |
1766119150828126208 |