Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom
Abstract The North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom depends on a confluence of environmental factors that drive transient periods of exponential phytoplankton growth and interannual variability in bloom magnitude. I analyze interannual bloom variability in the North Atlantic via extreme value theory whe...
Published in: | Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b5382329df3f4a7bba4d36ce48e67f56 2023-05-15T17:28:06+02:00 Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom Gregory L. Britten 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/article/b5382329df3f4a7bba4d36ce48e67f56 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/toc/2378-2242 2378-2242 doi:10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/article/b5382329df3f4a7bba4d36ce48e67f56 Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp 269-276 (2022) Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 2022-12-31T02:39:18Z Abstract The North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom depends on a confluence of environmental factors that drive transient periods of exponential phytoplankton growth and interannual variability in bloom magnitude. I analyze interannual bloom variability in the North Atlantic via extreme value theory where the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is fitted spatially to annual maxima of satellite‐measured surface chlorophyll. I find excellent agreement between the observed distribution of interannual bloom maxima and those predicted from the GEVD. The spatial distribution of fitted GEVD parameters closely follows basin bathymetry where the largest extremes and heaviest distribution tails are found on the continental shelves and slopes. Trend analyses suggest weak evidence for changes in GEVD parameters, despite regional trends in mean chlorophyll levels and sea surface temperature. These results provide a framework to quantify interannual bloom variability and call for further work examining how extreme blooms propagate through food webs and contribute to carbon export. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Limnology and Oceanography Letters 7 3 269 276 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Oceanography GC1-1581 |
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Oceanography GC1-1581 Gregory L. Britten Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
topic_facet |
Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Abstract The North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom depends on a confluence of environmental factors that drive transient periods of exponential phytoplankton growth and interannual variability in bloom magnitude. I analyze interannual bloom variability in the North Atlantic via extreme value theory where the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is fitted spatially to annual maxima of satellite‐measured surface chlorophyll. I find excellent agreement between the observed distribution of interannual bloom maxima and those predicted from the GEVD. The spatial distribution of fitted GEVD parameters closely follows basin bathymetry where the largest extremes and heaviest distribution tails are found on the continental shelves and slopes. Trend analyses suggest weak evidence for changes in GEVD parameters, despite regional trends in mean chlorophyll levels and sea surface temperature. These results provide a framework to quantify interannual bloom variability and call for further work examining how extreme blooms propagate through food webs and contribute to carbon export. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gregory L. Britten |
author_facet |
Gregory L. Britten |
author_sort |
Gregory L. Britten |
title |
Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
title_short |
Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
title_full |
Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
title_fullStr |
Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
title_sort |
extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the seasonal north atlantic phytoplankton bloom |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/article/b5382329df3f4a7bba4d36ce48e67f56 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp 269-276 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/toc/2378-2242 2378-2242 doi:10.1002/lol2.10247 https://doaj.org/article/b5382329df3f4a7bba4d36ce48e67f56 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10247 |
container_title |
Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
269 |
op_container_end_page |
276 |
_version_ |
1766120561788846080 |