Atmosphere circulation patterns synchronize pan-Arctic glacier melt and permafrost thaw

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: Ingo Sasgen, Grit Steinhoefel, Caroline Kasprzyk, Heidrun Matthes, Sebastian Westermann, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2024
• Subjects: Geology; QE1-996.5; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Active layer monitoring; Active layer thickness; Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network; Climate change; glacier; Greenland; Ice; Ice Sheet; North Pole; permafrost
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01548-8; https://doaj.org/article/b532655fbcc6476ba3d2ad19f2a69f2b

Abstract The Arctic is changing rapidly due to the amplification of global temperature trends, causing profound impacts on the ice sheet in Greenland, glaciers, frozen ground, ecosystems, and societies. Here, we focus on impacts that atmospheric circulation causes in addition to the climate warming trends. We combine time series of glacier mass balance from temporal satellite gravimetry measurements (GRACE/GRACE-FO; 2002–2023), active layer thickness in permafrost areas from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative remote sensing and modelling product (2003–2019), and field measurements of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (2002–2023). Despite regional and system-related complexities, we identify robust covariations between these observations, which vary asynchronously between neighbouring regions and synchronously in regions antipodal to the North Pole. We reveal a close connection with dominant modes of atmosphere circulation, controlling about 75% of the common pan-Arctic impact variability (2002–2022), also affecting the Greenland Ice Sheet. We emphasize that it is necessary to consider such atmospheric driving patterns when projecting impacts, particularly caused by extremes, in an increasingly warmer Arctic.