A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures
The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. B...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 2023-05-15T15:09:18+02:00 A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 699-717 (2013) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 2022-12-31T05:36:59Z The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Climate of the Past 9 2 699 717 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang |
author_facet |
D. J. Lunt A. Abe-Ouchi P. Bakker A. Berger P. Braconnot S. Charbit N. Fischer N. Herold J. H. Jungclaus V. C. Khon U. Krebs-Kanzow P. M. Langebroek G. Lohmann K. H. Nisancioglu B. L. Otto-Bliesner W. Park M. Pfeiffer S. J. Phipps M. Prange R. Rachmayani H. Renssen N. Rosenbloom B. Schneider E. J. Stone K. Takahashi W. Wei Q. Yin Z. S. Zhang |
author_sort |
D. J. Lunt |
title |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_short |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_full |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 699-717 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/9/699/2013/cp-9-699-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/b51afee21c4040bb8d52e7bef3598cf0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
699 |
op_container_end_page |
717 |
_version_ |
1766340514262548480 |