Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
Abstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmosp...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 https://doaj.org/article/b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 2024-09-15T18:08:07+00:00 Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 https://doaj.org/article/b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 2024-08-05T17:49:53Z Abstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen |
author_facet |
Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Peter A. G. Watson James A. Screen |
author_sort |
Kunhui Ye |
title |
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
title_short |
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
title_full |
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
title_sort |
response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 https://doaj.org/article/b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 |
genre |
Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/b51a1204a9654aed9e9f5fd169bf7386 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00562-5 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1810445462045458432 |