Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or w...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://doaj.org/article/b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e 2023-05-15T16:52:28+02:00 Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection J. D. Mackay N. E. Barrand D. M. Hannah S. Krause C. R. Jackson J. Everest G. Aðalgeirsdóttir 2018-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://doaj.org/article/b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 2175-2210 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 2022-12-31T06:46:39Z Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Fuller ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) The Cryosphere 12 7 2175 2210 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. D. Mackay N. E. Barrand D. M. Hannah S. Krause C. R. Jackson J. Everest G. Aðalgeirsdóttir Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. D. Mackay N. E. Barrand D. M. Hannah S. Krause C. R. Jackson J. Everest G. Aðalgeirsdóttir |
author_facet |
J. D. Mackay N. E. Barrand D. M. Hannah S. Krause C. R. Jackson J. Everest G. Aðalgeirsdóttir |
author_sort |
J. D. Mackay |
title |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_short |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_fullStr |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_sort |
glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://doaj.org/article/b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) |
geographic |
Fuller |
geographic_facet |
Fuller |
genre |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 2175-2210 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b5128f459dd64409952fc3d5f9c99e0e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2175 |
op_container_end_page |
2210 |
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1766042769198940160 |