Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last 2 decades for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilis...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b4ec33fbd6e44f99a9f019e8c7745f56 2023-05-15T13:34:10+02:00 Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet N. Schoen A. Zammit-Mangion J. C. Rougier T. Flament F. Rémy S. Luthcke J. L. Bamber 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 https://doaj.org/article/b4ec33fbd6e44f99a9f019e8c7745f56 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/805/2015/tc-9-805-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 https://doaj.org/article/b4ec33fbd6e44f99a9f019e8c7745f56 The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 805-819 (2015) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 2022-12-31T15:43:31Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last 2 decades for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003 to 2009 which is almost entirely data driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of −76 ± 15 Gt yr −1 for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula, including the major Antarctic islands. The GIA estimate compares well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inverse methods (AGE-1). The Bayesian framework is sufficiently flexible that it can, eventually, be used for the whole of Antarctica, be adapted for other ice sheets and utilise data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data, and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 9 2 805 819 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 N. Schoen A. Zammit-Mangion J. C. Rougier T. Flament F. Rémy S. Luthcke J. L. Bamber Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last 2 decades for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003 to 2009 which is almost entirely data driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of −76 ± 15 Gt yr −1 for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula, including the major Antarctic islands. The GIA estimate compares well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inverse methods (AGE-1). The Bayesian framework is sufficiently flexible that it can, eventually, be used for the whole of Antarctica, be adapted for other ice sheets and utilise data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data, and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
N. Schoen A. Zammit-Mangion J. C. Rougier T. Flament F. Rémy S. Luthcke J. L. Bamber |
author_facet |
N. Schoen A. Zammit-Mangion J. C. Rougier T. Flament F. Rémy S. Luthcke J. L. Bamber |
author_sort |
N. Schoen |
title |
Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
simultaneous solution for mass trends on the west antarctic ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 https://doaj.org/article/b4ec33fbd6e44f99a9f019e8c7745f56 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp 805-819 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/805/2015/tc-9-805-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 https://doaj.org/article/b4ec33fbd6e44f99a9f019e8c7745f56 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-805-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
805 |
op_container_end_page |
819 |
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1766049545998827520 |