Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following que...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b44c2babcabd4e379213834fcda376ac 2023-05-15T15:14:37+02:00 Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions S. Illing C. Kadow H. Pohlmann C. Timmreck 2018-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 https://doaj.org/article/b44c2babcabd4e379213834fcda376ac EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/701/2018/esd-9-701-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/b44c2babcabd4e379213834fcda376ac Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 701-715 (2018) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 2022-12-31T16:25:03Z The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day −1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Earth System Dynamics 9 2 701 715 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 S. Illing C. Kadow H. Pohlmann C. Timmreck Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day −1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Illing C. Kadow H. Pohlmann C. Timmreck |
author_facet |
S. Illing C. Kadow H. Pohlmann C. Timmreck |
author_sort |
S. Illing |
title |
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
title_short |
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
title_full |
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
title_sort |
assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 https://doaj.org/article/b44c2babcabd4e379213834fcda376ac |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 701-715 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/701/2018/esd-9-701-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/b44c2babcabd4e379213834fcda376ac |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
701 |
op_container_end_page |
715 |
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