Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China
Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute to the scientific assessment of vegetation–climate interactions. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of vegetation in China were projected and compared based on comprehensive...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b41d1b4dd618490c85ef43508a5c0c96 2023-05-15T18:40:37+02:00 Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Sha Zhang Yun Bai Dan Cao Tiantian Cheng Zhongtai Sun Qi Liu Til Prasad Pangali Sharma 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063049 https://doaj.org/article/b41d1b4dd618490c85ef43508a5c0c96 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3049 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su13063049 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/b41d1b4dd618490c85ef43508a5c0c96 Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 3049, p 3049 (2021) terrestrial ecosystems potential natural vegetation (PNV) comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) future climate scenarios sensitivity China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063049 2022-12-31T04:11:06Z Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute to the scientific assessment of vegetation–climate interactions. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of vegetation in China were projected and compared based on comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and five sensitivity levels were proposed. The results show that the CSCS model performs well in simulating vegetation distribution. The number of vegetation types would increase from 36 to 40. Frigid–perhumid rain tundra and alpine meadow are the most distributed vegetation types, with an area of more than 78.45 × 10 4 km 2 , whereas there are no climate conditions suitable for tropical–extra-arid tropical desert in China. Some plants would benefit from climate changes to a certain extent. Warm temperate–arid warm temperate zone semidesert would expand by more than 1.82% by the 2080s. A continuous expansion of more than 18.81 × 10 4 km 2 and northward shift of more than 124.93 km in tropical forest would occur across all three scenarios. However, some ecosystems would experience inevitable changes. More than 1.33% of cool temperate–extra-arid temperate zone desert would continuously shrink. Five sensitivity levels present an interphase distribution. More extreme scenarios would result in wider ecosystem responses. The evolutionary trend from cold–arid vegetation to warm–wet vegetation is a prominent feature despite the variability in ecosystem responses to climate changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Sustainability 13 6 3049 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
terrestrial ecosystems potential natural vegetation (PNV) comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) future climate scenarios sensitivity China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
terrestrial ecosystems potential natural vegetation (PNV) comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) future climate scenarios sensitivity China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Sha Zhang Yun Bai Dan Cao Tiantian Cheng Zhongtai Sun Qi Liu Til Prasad Pangali Sharma Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
topic_facet |
terrestrial ecosystems potential natural vegetation (PNV) comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) future climate scenarios sensitivity China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to future climate changes would substantially contribute to the scientific assessment of vegetation–climate interactions. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of vegetation in China were projected and compared based on comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and five sensitivity levels were proposed. The results show that the CSCS model performs well in simulating vegetation distribution. The number of vegetation types would increase from 36 to 40. Frigid–perhumid rain tundra and alpine meadow are the most distributed vegetation types, with an area of more than 78.45 × 10 4 km 2 , whereas there are no climate conditions suitable for tropical–extra-arid tropical desert in China. Some plants would benefit from climate changes to a certain extent. Warm temperate–arid warm temperate zone semidesert would expand by more than 1.82% by the 2080s. A continuous expansion of more than 18.81 × 10 4 km 2 and northward shift of more than 124.93 km in tropical forest would occur across all three scenarios. However, some ecosystems would experience inevitable changes. More than 1.33% of cool temperate–extra-arid temperate zone desert would continuously shrink. Five sensitivity levels present an interphase distribution. More extreme scenarios would result in wider ecosystem responses. The evolutionary trend from cold–arid vegetation to warm–wet vegetation is a prominent feature despite the variability in ecosystem responses to climate changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Sha Zhang Yun Bai Dan Cao Tiantian Cheng Zhongtai Sun Qi Liu Til Prasad Pangali Sharma |
author_facet |
Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Sha Zhang Yun Bai Dan Cao Tiantian Cheng Zhongtai Sun Qi Liu Til Prasad Pangali Sharma |
author_sort |
Shuaishuai Li |
title |
Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
title_short |
Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
title_full |
Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystems over China |
title_sort |
impacts of future climate changes on spatio-temporal distribution of terrestrial ecosystems over china |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063049 https://doaj.org/article/b41d1b4dd618490c85ef43508a5c0c96 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 3049, p 3049 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3049 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su13063049 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/b41d1b4dd618490c85ef43508a5c0c96 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063049 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
3049 |
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1766230018403336192 |