Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections
Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of d...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b36e890b756b4244b08d4ba1254aac5c 2023-05-15T16:39:44+02:00 Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections R. C. de Winter T. J. Reerink A. B. A. Slangen H. de Vries T. Edwards R. S. W. van de Wal 2017-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 https://doaj.org/article/b36e890b756b4244b08d4ba1254aac5c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2125/2017/nhess-17-2125-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/b36e890b756b4244b08d4ba1254aac5c Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 17, Pp 2125-2141 (2017) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 2022-12-30T23:34:40Z Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18 m higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32 m. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8 m. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17 12 2125 2141 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 R. C. de Winter T. J. Reerink A. B. A. Slangen H. de Vries T. Edwards R. S. W. van de Wal Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
topic_facet |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose we use distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss presented by Church et al. (2013), De Vries and Van de Wal (2015) and Ritz et al. (2015). The global average median can be 0.18 m higher compared to symmetric distributions based on IPCC-AR5, but the change in the global average 95th percentile SLC is considerably larger with a shift of 0.32 m. Locally the 90th, 95th and 97.5th SLC percentiles exceed +1.4, +1.6 and +1.8 m. The high-end percentiles of SLC projections are highly sensitive to the precise shape of the probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss. The shift towards higher values is of importance for coastal safety strategies as they are based on the high-end percentiles of projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. C. de Winter T. J. Reerink A. B. A. Slangen H. de Vries T. Edwards R. S. W. van de Wal |
author_facet |
R. C. de Winter T. J. Reerink A. B. A. Slangen H. de Vries T. Edwards R. S. W. van de Wal |
author_sort |
R. C. de Winter |
title |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_short |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_full |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_fullStr |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
title_sort |
impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 https://doaj.org/article/b36e890b756b4244b08d4ba1254aac5c |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 17, Pp 2125-2141 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2125/2017/nhess-17-2125-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/b36e890b756b4244b08d4ba1254aac5c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2125 |
op_container_end_page |
2141 |
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