Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meri...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Quinn Mackay, Yifei Fan, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Laifang Li
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
AMOC
SST
climate variability
CMIP6
North Atlantic warming hole
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109789
https://doaj.org/article/b326f4e86c21445282d8dd55ea80ef72
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Summary:Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and subpolar North Atlantic SST has thus been utilized to estimate AMOC variability. We assess the robustness of subpolar North Atlantic SST as a proxy for AMOC strength under historical forcing, abrupt quadrupling of CO2, and a medium future emissions pathway, finding that AMOC's fingerprint on SST depends upon forcing scenarios. AMOC is important in warming hole development during significant warming periods, although SST may introduce uncertainties for AMOC reconstruction in stabilized regimes due to diverse forcing mechanisms and decadal variability. Our results caution against using SST alone as a proxy for AMOC variability—both on paleoclimatic and contemporary time scales.

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